DCF Studio

    JBL · NYQ · Technology

    Jabil Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 332.24

    Market price

    USD 266.35

    Implied upside

    +24.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-08-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 332.24+24.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 462.58+73.7%
    Market price
    USD 266.35

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 44.8bnUSD 52.1bnUSD 59.7bnUSD 67.3bnUSD 74.8bnUSD 81.8bnUSD 88.1bnUSD 93.3bnUSD 97.3bnUSD 99.7bn+9.3%
    EBITUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.9bn+9.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+9.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+9.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.7bn+11.4%
    Capex, % of revenue2.2%2.3%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -363.5mUSD -300.0mUSD -312.0mUSD -315.1mUSD -307.8mUSD -289.0mUSD -258.1mUSD -215.5mUSD -162.2mUSD -100.1m-13.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bn+10.4%
    Discount factor0.95640.87470.80010.73180.66930.61220.55990.51210.46840.4284-
    Present valueUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 15.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.228Reported 1.340, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.09%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 10.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 27.4bn87.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.0bn12.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 332.24

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (9.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -381.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    25.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 52.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 22.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 37.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 35.5bn

    Exit at 11.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 462.58

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 84.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 36.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 51.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 49.4bn

    Spread between methods: 33%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.33%442.79463.71489.27521.09561.62
    8.33%369.47382.10397.14415.28437.48
    9.33%315.18323.04332.24343.12356.10
    10.33%273.44278.38284.12290.82298.70
    11.33%240.39243.48247.07251.23256.08

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 266.35. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.2%10.7%8.0%
    EBIT margin5.1%4.9%4.0%
    Discount rate-9.3%10.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.