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    JCI · NYQ · Industrials

    Johnson Controls International plc

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 45.97

    Market price

    USD 146.49

    Implied upside

    -68.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Current EV/EBITDA of 26.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 45.97-68.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 99.08-32.4%
    Market price
    USD 146.49

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 28.3bnUSD 30.7bnUSD 33.0bnUSD 35.3bnUSD 37.4bnUSD 39.4bnUSD 41.3bnUSD 42.9bnUSD 44.3bnUSD 45.4bn+5.4%
    EBITUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bn+5.4%
    NOPATUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bn+5.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 993.8mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+5.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -591.3mUSD -776.6mUSD -981.9mUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.8bn+18.7%
    Capex, % of revenue2.1%2.5%3.0%3.4%3.9%4.3%4.8%5.2%5.6%6.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -906.5mUSD -449.9mUSD -444.7mUSD -432.6mUSD -413.3mUSD -386.7mUSD -352.9mUSD -312.1mUSD -264.9mUSD -212.0m-14.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bn+3.4%
    Discount factor0.95600.87360.79840.72960.66680.60930.55690.50890.46510.4250-
    Present valueUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 19.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.194Reported 1.289, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.94%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 12.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 88.7bn90.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 9.9bn10.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate9.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.42%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 45.97

    51% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 47.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 20.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 39.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 30.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 99.08

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 129.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 55.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 74.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 64.8bn

    Spread between methods: 73%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.42%67.2867.1367.1367.3467.83
    8.42%55.4254.6253.8453.0652.31
    9.42%47.4346.7045.9745.2444.52
    10.42%41.1440.5139.8939.2738.64
    11.42%35.9735.4334.8934.3533.81

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 146.49. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.6%6.8%20.7%
    EBIT margin12.0%10.8%28.1%
    Discount rate-9.4%5.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.