DCF Studio

    JKHY · NMS · Technology

    Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 175.63

    Market price

    USD 163.42

    Implied upside

    +7.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 175.63+7.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 184.13+12.7%
    Market price
    USD 163.42

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m453m907mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bn+4.8%
    EBITUSD 633.6mUSD 678.2mUSD 722.0mUSD 764.5mUSD 805.3mUSD 843.7mUSD 879.1mUSD 911.0mUSD 938.9mUSD 962.4m+4.8%
    NOPATUSD 500.6mUSD 535.7mUSD 570.4mUSD 604.0mUSD 636.2mUSD 666.5mUSD 694.5mUSD 719.7mUSD 741.8mUSD 760.3m+4.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 237.0mUSD 253.6mUSD 270.0mUSD 285.9mUSD 301.2mUSD 315.5mUSD 328.8mUSD 340.7mUSD 351.2mUSD 359.9m+4.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -270.8mUSD -273.3mUSD -273.3mUSD -270.8mUSD -265.6mUSD -257.6mUSD -247.0mUSD -233.7mUSD -218.0mUSD -200.0m-3.3%
    Capex, % of revenue10.1%9.5%8.9%8.3%7.8%7.2%6.6%6.0%5.5%4.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -19.9mUSD -25.4mUSD -25.0mUSD -24.3mUSD -23.2mUSD -21.9mUSD -20.2mUSD -18.2mUSD -15.9mUSD -13.4m-4.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 446.9mUSD 490.7mUSD 542.1mUSD 594.9mUSD 648.6mUSD 702.5mUSD 756.1mUSD 808.5mUSD 859.0mUSD 906.9m+8.2%
    Discount factor0.96310.89340.82870.76870.71310.66150.61360.56920.52800.4898-
    Present valueUSD 430.4mUSD 438.4mUSD 449.3mUSD 457.3mUSD 462.5mUSD 464.7mUSD 463.9mUSD 460.2mUSD 453.5mUSD 444.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.690Reported 0.537, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.81%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Implied cost of debt of 26.9% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 200bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.5bn99.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 40.0m0.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.80%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 175.63

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 906.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 980.6m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (12.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -118.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 861.7m
    ROIC (reported)
    20.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 16.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 12.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 27.9m
    Equity value
    USD 12.7bn

    Exit at 13.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 184.13

    66% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 17.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 13.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 27.9m
    Equity value
    USD 13.3bn

    Spread between methods: 5%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.80%244.94262.60285.87317.72363.77
    6.80%196.63206.07217.89233.03252.99
    7.80%163.75169.12175.63183.65193.72
    8.80%139.97143.10146.84151.34156.82
    9.80%121.99123.82125.98128.56131.66

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 163.42. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.0%4.9%4.0%
    EBIT margin25.0%23.5%21.6%
    Discount rate-7.8%8.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.