DCF Studio

    KER.PA · PAR · Consumer Cyclical

    Kering SA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 83.89

    Market price

    EUR 233.00

    Implied upside

    -64.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 83.89-64.0%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 125.39-46.2%
    Market price
    EUR 233.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 13.2bnEUR 11.8bnEUR 10.6bnEUR 9.5bnEUR 8.5bn-10.3%
    EBITEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 1.6bn-10.3%
    NOPATEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.2bn-10.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.0bnEUR 935.1m-10.3%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.3bnEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.0bnEUR -933.3m-10.3%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 48.2mEUR 43.3mEUR 38.8mEUR 34.8mEUR 31.2m+10.3%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.3bn-10.3%
    Discount factor0.96880.90930.85340.80100.7518-
    Present valueEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 942.0m-15.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 6.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.995Reported 0.992, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.17%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.25%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 28.6bn61.2% of capital
    Total debtEUR 18.1bn38.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.54%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 83.89

    72% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (25.7% of NOPAT)
    EUR -313.0m
    Capitalised
    EUR 907.1m
    ROIC (reported)
    9.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 23.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 17.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 24.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 13.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 10.3bn

    Exit at 11.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 125.39

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 29.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 22.4bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 29.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 13.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 15.4bn

    Spread between methods: 40%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.54%175.01204.74248.81321.14462.34
    5.54%109.80122.57139.41162.71197.22
    6.54%70.3076.3983.8993.40105.90
    7.54%43.7746.7450.2254.3859.48
    8.54%24.6926.0427.5529.2731.27

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 233.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-10.3%2.0%+12.3pp
    EBIT margin19.3%34.1%+14.8pp
    Discount rate6.5%4.6%-1.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.