KEY · NYQ · Financial Services
KeyCorp
Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck
Implied value per share
USD 12.11
Market price
USD 21.49
Implied upside
-43.7%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 7.5%
- Payout
- 87%
- Cost of equity
- 9.32%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 17.9bn | USD 18.1bn | USD 18.3bn | USD 18.6bn | USD 18.9bn | USD 19.2bn | USD 19.6bn | USD 20.0bn | USD 20.4bn | USD 20.9bn |
| Return on equity | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Excess return | USD -320.8m | USD -324.6m | USD -328.8m | USD -333.6m | USD -339.0m | USD -344.9m | USD -351.5m | USD -358.7m | USD -366.6m | USD -375.3m |
| Present value | USD -293.5m | USD -271.6m | USD -251.7m | USD -233.6m | USD -217.1m | USD -202.1m | USD -188.4m | USD -175.9m | USD -164.5m | USD -154.0m |
| Book equity | USD 17.9bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD -2.2bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD -2.3bn |
| Equity value | USD 13.4bn |
| Per share | USD 12.11 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 1.046 | Reported 1.068, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 9.32% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.