DCF Studio

    KHC · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    The Kraft Heinz Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 45.74

    Market price

    USD 24.93

    Implied upside

    +83.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 45.74+83.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 31.90+28.0%
    Market price
    USD 24.93

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 24.6bnUSD 24.7bnUSD 24.8bnUSD 25.0bnUSD 25.2bnUSD 25.6bnUSD 26.0bnUSD 26.5bnUSD 27.1bnUSD 27.7bn+1.3%
    EBITUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bn+1.3%
    NOPATUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bn+1.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 904.0mUSD 905.5mUSD 909.6mUSD 916.4mUSD 926.0mUSD 938.3mUSD 953.5mUSD 971.8mUSD 993.3mUSD 1.0bn+1.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -922.3mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.6bn+12.3%
    Capex, % of revenue3.7%4.4%5.0%5.6%6.3%6.9%7.5%8.2%8.8%9.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 13.2mUSD -1.7mUSD -4.8mUSD -8.0mUSD -11.2mUSD -14.4mUSD -17.8mUSD -21.4mUSD -25.1mUSD -29.1m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.6bn-4.0%
    Discount factor0.97260.92010.87050.82350.77900.73690.69720.65950.62390.5902-
    Present valueUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 24.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.399Reported 0.103, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.58%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 29.6bn58.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 21.2bn41.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.71%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 45.74

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (42.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.9bn
    Capitalised
    USD 2.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    5.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 80.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 47.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 71.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 17.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 54.3bn

    Exit at 8.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 31.90

    56% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 52.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 31.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 55.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 17.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 37.9bn

    Spread between methods: 36%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.71%99.35111.77135.26193.31536.79
    4.71%64.9566.9670.2976.0887.40
    5.71%46.8746.2745.7445.3245.08
    6.71%37.2736.5735.8835.1834.49
    7.71%30.5629.9929.4128.8428.27

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 24.93. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-2.0%1.1%-3.8%
    EBIT margin20.7%19.0%12.2%
    Discount rate-5.7%8.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.