DCF Studio

    KIM · NYQ · Real Estate

    Kimco Realty Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 3.21

    Market price

    USD 25.07

    Implied upside

    -87.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.00% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 29.15% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 3.21-87.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 17.89-28.6%
    Market price
    USD 25.07

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m351m702mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bn+2.9%
    EBITUSD 722.1mUSD 745.4mUSD 768.8mUSD 792.3mUSD 815.7mUSD 839.1mUSD 862.4mUSD 885.5mUSD 908.5mUSD 931.2m+2.9%
    NOPATUSD 722.1mUSD 745.4mUSD 768.8mUSD 792.3mUSD 815.7mUSD 839.1mUSD 862.4mUSD 885.5mUSD 908.5mUSD 931.2m+2.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 619.9mUSD 639.9mUSD 660.0mUSD 680.1mUSD 700.2mUSD 720.3mUSD 740.3mUSD 760.1mUSD 779.8mUSD 799.3m+2.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -639.8mUSD -683.5mUSD -728.6mUSD -775.2mUSD -823.3mUSD -872.7mUSD -923.5mUSD -975.6mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bn+6.0%
    Capex, % of revenue29.2%30.2%31.2%32.2%33.2%34.2%35.2%36.2%37.3%38.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -148.7kUSD -193.1kUSD -193.7kUSD -193.9kUSD -193.8kUSD -193.4kUSD -192.6kUSD -191.4kUSD -189.8kUSD -187.9k+2.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 702.0mUSD 701.7mUSD 700.0mUSD 696.9mUSD 692.4mUSD 686.4mUSD 678.9mUSD 669.9mUSD 659.2mUSD 647.0m-0.9%
    Discount factor0.96140.88850.82120.75900.70150.64830.59920.55380.51180.4730-
    Present valueUSD 674.9mUSD 623.4mUSD 574.8mUSD 529.0mUSD 485.7mUSD 445.0mUSD 406.8mUSD 371.0mUSD 337.4mUSD 306.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.954Reported 0.931, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.93%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.73%Risk-free + 184bp, the spread for a BB rating at 2.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 16.7bn66.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.3bn33.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.20%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 3.21

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 647.0m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 931.2m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -283.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 647.2m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 11.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 10.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 2.2bn

    Exit at 18.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 17.89

    76% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 32.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 12.1bn

    Spread between methods: 139%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.20%8.678.398.117.837.55
    7.20%5.785.555.325.094.86
    8.20%3.593.403.213.022.83
    9.20%1.881.721.561.401.24
    10.20%0.510.380.240.10-0.04

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 25.07. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.4%2.8%13.9%
    EBIT margin33.5%32.9%79.8%
    Discount rate-8.2%3.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.