DCF Studio

    KMB · NMS · Consumer Defensive

    Kimberly-Clark Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 114.57

    Market price

    USD 108.25

    Implied upside

    +5.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 114.57+5.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 112.61+4.0%
    Market price
    USD 108.25

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 16.6bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 17.4bnUSD 17.9bnUSD 18.3bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 19.2bnUSD 19.7bnUSD 20.2bnUSD 20.7bn+2.5%
    EBITUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bn+2.5%
    NOPATUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bn+2.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 734.2mUSD 752.2mUSD 770.7mUSD 789.6mUSD 809.1mUSD 829.1mUSD 849.7mUSD 870.8mUSD 892.6mUSD 914.9m+2.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -831.8mUSD -862.1mUSD -893.5mUSD -926.0mUSD -959.6mUSD -994.4mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bn+3.6%
    Capex, % of revenue5.0%5.1%5.1%5.2%5.2%5.3%5.4%5.4%5.5%5.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.2mUSD -2.7mUSD -2.8mUSD -2.9mUSD -3.0mUSD -3.0mUSD -3.1mUSD -3.2mUSD -3.3mUSD -3.4m+12.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bn+1.9%
    Discount factor0.96860.90880.85260.79990.75050.70420.66070.61980.58150.5456-
    Present valueUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 14.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.515Reported 0.276, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.07%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 9.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 36.0bn83.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 7.3bn16.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.59%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 114.57

    67% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (10.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -263.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    23.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 54.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 30.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 44.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 38.2bn

    Exit at 13.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 112.61

    67% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 53.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 29.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 44.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 37.5bn

    Spread between methods: 2%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.59%177.80202.67239.66300.28417.16
    5.59%129.74141.35156.86178.53210.80
    6.59%100.59106.78114.58124.66138.13
    7.59%81.0484.5988.9194.25100.99
    8.59%67.0269.1471.6674.7078.41

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 108.25. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-6.6%2.3%1.8%
    EBIT margin16.6%14.8%14.1%
    Discount rate-6.6%6.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.