DCF Studio

    KMI · NYQ · Energy

    Kinder Morgan, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 11.71

    Market price

    USD 32.71

    Implied upside

    -64.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 11.71-64.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 26.39-19.3%
    Market price
    USD 32.71

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 18.4bnUSD 18.6bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 19.1bnUSD 19.4bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 20.2bnUSD 20.6bnUSD 21.1bnUSD 21.6bn+1.8%
    EBITUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.7bn+1.8%
    NOPATUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bn+1.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bn+1.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.1bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -4.6bn+6.1%
    Capex, % of revenue14.7%15.4%16.2%16.9%17.7%18.4%19.1%19.9%20.6%21.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -72.5mUSD -10.9mUSD -12.5mUSD -14.3mUSD -16.1mUSD -18.0mUSD -20.0mUSD -22.0mUSD -24.2mUSD -26.6m-10.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.9bn-2.4%
    Discount factor0.96600.90140.84110.78490.73240.68350.63780.59510.55540.5182-
    Present valueUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 24.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.714Reported 0.573, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.91%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 72.9bn69.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 31.8bn30.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.16%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 11.71

    58% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (34.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.6bn
    Capitalised
    USD 2.9bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 64.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 33.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 57.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 31.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 26.0bn

    Exit at 14.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 26.39

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 127.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 66.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 90.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 31.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 58.7bn

    Spread between methods: 77%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.16%23.4623.2923.2523.4324.02
    6.16%16.7216.3015.8715.4415.02
    7.16%12.4012.0511.7111.3611.01
    8.16%9.148.858.568.287.99
    9.16%6.606.356.115.875.62

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 32.71. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-4.1%2.5%9.8%
    EBIT margin29.0%26.5%47.6%
    Discount rate-7.2%4.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.