DCF Studio

    KNIN.SW · EBS · Industrials

    Kuehne + Nagel International AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    CHF 286.63

    Market price

    CHF 215.70

    Implied upside

    +32.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 1.03% of revenue against depreciation of 2.85%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 2.85% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    CHF 286.63+32.9%
    Exit multiple
    CHF 121.08-43.9%
    Market price
    CHF 215.70

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (CHF). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayCHF
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueCHF 20.9bnCHF 17.8bnCHF 15.2bnCHF 13.0bnCHF 11.1bn-14.7%
    EBITCHF 1.5bnCHF 1.3bnCHF 1.1bnCHF 944.1mCHF 805.6m-14.7%
    NOPATCHF 1.3bnCHF 1.1bnCHF 940.5mCHF 802.5mCHF 684.7m-14.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationCHF 639.0mCHF 545.2mCHF 465.2mCHF 396.9mCHF 338.7m-14.7%
    Less capital expenditureCHF -595.5mCHF -508.1mCHF -433.6mCHF -369.9mCHF -315.7m-14.7%
    Less increase in working capitalCHF 88.1mCHF 75.2mCHF 64.2mCHF 54.8mCHF 46.7m+14.7%
    Free cashflow to firmCHF 1.4bnCHF 1.2bnCHF 1.0bnCHF 884.2mCHF 754.5m-14.7%
    Discount factor0.97940.93960.90140.86470.8295-
    Present valueCHF 1.4bnCHF 1.1bnCHF 934.1mCHF 764.6mCHF 625.9m-18.1%
    Present Value Of The ForecastCHF 4.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate0.50%CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.761Reported 0.644, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity4.69%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt1.59%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationCHF 25.6bn86.6% of capital
    Total debtCHF 4.0bn13.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC4.24%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareCHF 286.63

    87% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    CHF 754.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    CHF 704.3m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (5.7% of NOPAT)
    CHF -39.9m
    Capitalised
    CHF 664.4m
    ROIC (reported)
    44.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CHF 39.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CHF 32.4bn
    Enterprise value
    CHF 37.3bn
    Less net debt
    CHF 3.2bn
    Equity value
    CHF 34.1bn

    Exit at 13.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareCHF 121.08

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CHF 15.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CHF 12.7bn
    Enterprise value
    CHF 17.6bn
    Less net debt
    CHF 3.2bn
    Equity value
    CHF 14.4bn

    Spread between methods: 81%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (CHF) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    2.24%724.442178.26———
    3.24%303.57417.12683.792055.33—
    4.24%189.57227.29286.63393.73645.24
    5.24%136.39154.44179.04214.60270.56
    6.24%105.55115.83128.84145.85169.04

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 215.70. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-14.7%-19.3%-4.6pp
    EBIT margin7.3%5.6%-1.7pp
    Discount rate4.2%4.8%+0.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.