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    KO · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    The Coca-Cola Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 40.12

    Market price

    USD 95.83

    Implied upside

    -58.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 4.1% of revenue against depreciation of 2.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 27.7x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 40.12-58.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 49.35-48.5%
    Market price
    USD 95.83

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn6bn11bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 50.5bnUSD 48.9bnUSD 47.7bnUSD 46.9bnUSD 46.4bnUSD 46.2bnUSD 46.4bnUSD 46.9bnUSD 47.8bnUSD 49.0bn-0.3%
    EBITUSD 14.8bnUSD 14.4bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 14.4bn-0.3%
    NOPATUSD 12.2bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.8bn-0.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn-0.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.1bn+4.6%
    Capex, % of revenue4.1%4.3%4.6%4.8%5.1%5.3%5.5%5.8%6.0%6.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -133.6mUSD 83.6mUSD 62.8mUSD 43.6mUSD 25.4mUSD 7.9mUSD -9.3mUSD -26.5mUSD -44.2mUSD -62.8m-8.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 9.9bn-1.4%
    Discount factor0.96770.90620.84870.79480.74430.69700.65270.61130.57240.5361-
    Present valueUSD 10.9bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 75.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.510Reported 0.269, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.05%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 9.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 412.3bn90.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 45.5bn9.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.78%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 40.12

    63% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 9.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 11.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.9bn
    Capitalised
    USD 9.9bn
    ROIC (reported)
    15.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 237.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 127.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 202.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 29.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 173.0bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 49.35

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 311.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 167.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 242.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 29.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 212.8bn

    Spread between methods: 21%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.78%61.8168.5778.4093.88121.63
    5.78%46.2849.3653.4459.0867.30
    6.78%36.6238.1640.1142.6446.01
    7.78%30.0330.8331.8133.0534.63
    8.78%25.2425.6426.1426.7527.52

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 95.83. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.7%0.2%9.4%
    EBIT margin31.1%29.4%63.7%
    Discount rate-6.8%4.4%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.