DCF Studio

    KVUE · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    Kenvue Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 19.69

    Market price

    USD 19.31

    Implied upside

    +1.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-10-30 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 19.69+1.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 20.48+6.1%
    Market price
    USD 19.31

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 15.6bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 16.4bnUSD 16.8bnUSD 17.2bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 18.1bnUSD 18.6bnUSD 19.0bnUSD 19.5bn+2.5%
    EBITUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bn+2.5%
    NOPATUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+2.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 627.6mUSD 643.2mUSD 659.2mUSD 675.7mUSD 692.5mUSD 709.8mUSD 727.5mUSD 745.7mUSD 764.3mUSD 783.4m+2.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -448.7mUSD -507.2mUSD -568.4mUSD -632.3mUSD -699.1mUSD -768.8mUSD -841.5mUSD -917.4mUSD -996.6mUSD -1.1bn+10.2%
    Capex, % of revenue2.9%3.2%3.5%3.8%4.1%4.4%4.6%4.9%5.2%5.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -49.5mUSD -39.2mUSD -40.2mUSD -41.2mUSD -42.2mUSD -43.3mUSD -44.4mUSD -45.5mUSD -46.7mUSD -47.9m-0.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bn+0.3%
    Discount factor0.96740.90540.84740.79310.74230.69470.65020.60850.56950.5330-
    Present valueUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 16.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.596Reported 0.397, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.42%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 6.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 37.1bn81.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.7bn18.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.85%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 19.69

    63% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -678.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 53.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 28.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 45.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 37.9bn

    Exit at 13.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 20.48

    64% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 56.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 30.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 47.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 39.4bn

    Spread between methods: 4%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.85%31.7234.5238.6145.0156.32
    5.85%23.6724.8026.3328.4631.58
    6.85%18.6319.0819.6920.4921.58
    7.85%15.1715.3215.5215.7916.17
    8.85%12.6612.6412.6512.6912.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 19.31. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.4%2.6%2.4%
    EBIT margin18.0%17.3%17.0%
    Discount rate-6.8%6.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.