DCF Studio

    LIFCO-B.ST · STO · Industrials

    Lifco AB (publ)

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    SEK 144.76

    Market price

    SEK 306.60

    Implied upside

    -52.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 21.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    SEK 144.76-52.8%
    Exit multiple
    SEK 344.43+12.3%
    Market price
    SEK 306.60

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (SEK). Outflows negative.

    0bn4bn8bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todaySEK
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueSEK 30.9bnSEK 33.8bnSEK 37.0bnSEK 40.5bnSEK 44.4bn+9.4%
    EBITSEK 5.8bnSEK 6.3bnSEK 6.9bnSEK 7.6bnSEK 8.3bn+9.4%
    NOPATSEK 4.4bnSEK 4.8bnSEK 5.2bnSEK 5.7bnSEK 6.3bn+9.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationSEK 1.9bnSEK 2.1bnSEK 2.3bnSEK 2.5bnSEK 2.7bn+9.4%
    Less capital expenditureSEK -583.7mSEK -638.8mSEK -699.1mSEK -765.1mSEK -837.3m+9.4%
    Less increase in working capitalSEK 111.0mSEK 121.5mSEK 133.0mSEK 145.5mSEK 159.3m-9.4%
    Free cashflow to firmSEK 5.8bnSEK 6.3bnSEK 6.9bnSEK 7.6bnSEK 8.3bn+9.4%
    Discount factor0.95000.85740.77380.69840.6303-
    Present valueSEK 5.5bnSEK 5.4bnSEK 5.4bnSEK 5.3bnSEK 5.2bn-1.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastSEK 26.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.108Reported 1.161, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.40%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationSEK 139.3bn92.7% of capital
    Total debtSEK 11.0bn7.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate24.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.80%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareSEK 144.76

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    SEK 8.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    SEK 7.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.7% of NOPAT)
    SEK -1.3bn
    Capitalised
    SEK 6.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 76.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 48.0bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 74.8bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 9.1bn
    Equity value
    SEK 65.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareSEK 344.43

    84% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 220.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 138.7bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 165.5bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 9.1bn
    Equity value
    SEK 156.4bn

    Spread between methods: 82%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (SEK) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.80%182.13187.17192.96199.67207.58
    9.80%158.84162.02165.59169.62174.24
    10.80%140.53142.55144.76147.21149.94
    11.80%125.75127.01128.36129.82131.42
    12.80%113.57114.32115.10115.93116.82

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 306.60. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year9.4%27.7%+18.2pp
    EBIT margin18.7%41.5%+22.8pp
    Discount rate10.8%6.5%-4.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.