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    Linde plc

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 219.34

    Market price

    USD 519.72

    Implied upside

    -57.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 20.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 219.34-57.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 434.91-16.3%
    Market price
    USD 519.72

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn4bn8bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 36.5bnUSD 38.2bnUSD 39.9bnUSD 41.6bnUSD 43.2bnUSD 44.8bnUSD 46.3bnUSD 47.7bnUSD 49.1bnUSD 50.3bn+3.6%
    EBITUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.2bn+3.6%
    NOPATUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.7bn+3.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.9bn+3.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.6bnUSD -4.9bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -5.5bnUSD -5.8bnUSD -6.2bnUSD -6.5bnUSD -6.8bnUSD -7.1bnUSD -7.4bn+5.5%
    Capex, % of revenue12.5%12.8%13.0%13.3%13.5%13.7%14.0%14.2%14.5%14.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -296.4mUSD -208.1mUSD -205.0mUSD -200.7mUSD -195.0mUSD -187.9mUSD -179.5mUSD -169.8mUSD -158.8mUSD -146.6m-7.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.0bn+2.5%
    Discount factor0.96320.89350.82900.76900.71340.66190.61400.56960.52840.4902-
    Present valueUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 3.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 50.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.786Reported 0.680, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.22%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 19.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 238.6bn89.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 28.1bn10.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.79%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 219.34

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 8.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 10.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.3bn
    Capitalised
    USD 8.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    11.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 154.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 75.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 126.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 23.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 103.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 434.91

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 362.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 177.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 228.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 23.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 205.4bn

    Spread between methods: 66%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.79%336.42353.61376.79409.17456.80
    6.79%263.44270.49279.75292.08308.88
    7.79%213.72216.09219.33223.73229.68
    8.79%177.68177.71178.09178.90180.27
    9.79%150.37149.19148.12147.20146.46

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 519.72. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.6%4.0%13.3%
    EBIT margin27.2%24.3%52.4%
    Discount rate-7.8%5.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.