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    LMT · NYQ · Industrials

    Lockheed Martin Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 985.51

    Market price

    USD 643.15

    Implied upside

    +53.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 985.51+53.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 936.61+45.6%
    Market price
    USD 643.15

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn6bn12bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 81.4bnUSD 87.1bnUSD 92.8bnUSD 98.2bnUSD 103.5bnUSD 108.4bnUSD 113.0bnUSD 117.1bnUSD 120.7bnUSD 123.7bn+4.8%
    EBITUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.7bnUSD 14.0bn+4.8%
    NOPATUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 12.0bn+4.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+4.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.9bn+4.6%
    Capex, % of revenue2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -321.6mUSD -290.1mUSD -285.5mUSD -277.3mUSD -265.4mUSD -249.9mUSD -230.7mUSD -207.9mUSD -181.8mUSD -152.8m-7.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 7.4bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.6bn+5.1%
    Discount factor0.97000.91270.85870.80790.76020.71520.67300.63320.59580.5605-
    Present valueUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 70.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.384Reported 0.081, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.52%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 148.6bn87.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 21.7bn12.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate14.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.28%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 985.51

    71% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 11.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 12.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (9.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 11.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    26.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 315.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 176.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 247.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 17.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 230.1bn

    Exit at 17.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 936.61

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 295.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 165.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 236.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 17.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 218.7bn

    Spread between methods: 5%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.28%1538.571789.672183.262886.014490.45
    5.28%1104.781216.341368.971589.691935.76
    6.28%852.89911.16985.521083.331217.22
    7.28%688.49721.82762.63813.55878.57
    8.28%572.87593.00617.00645.99681.52

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 643.15. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.4%5.1%0.6%
    EBIT margin12.7%11.4%7.5%
    Discount rate-6.3%8.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.