DCF Studio

    LNT · NMS · Utilities

    Alliant Energy Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 27.34

    Market price

    USD 73.02

    Implied upside

    -62.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 27.34-62.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 72.07-1.3%
    Market price
    USD 73.02

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.5bn+3.9%
    EBITUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bn+3.9%
    NOPATUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 819.6mUSD 862.9mUSD 905.4mUSD 947.0mUSD 987.1mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -656.2mUSD -751.2mUSD -851.6mUSD -956.9mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bn+10.8%
    Capex, % of revenue14.3%15.6%16.8%18.1%19.3%20.6%21.8%23.1%24.3%25.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 7.9mUSD 8.7mUSD 8.5mUSD 8.3mUSD 8.0mUSD 7.7mUSD 7.3mUSD 6.8mUSD 6.3mUSD 5.6m+3.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 955.2m-2.5%
    Discount factor0.96550.90000.83890.78200.72890.67950.63340.59040.55030.5130-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 925.9mUSD 848.9mUSD 772.9mUSD 698.5mUSD 626.3mUSD 556.7mUSD 490.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.665Reported 0.500, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.71%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.73%Risk-free + 184bp, the spread for a BB rating at 2.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 18.9bn61.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 12.1bn39.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate1.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.28%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 27.34

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 955.2m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (34.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -496.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 949.6m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 11.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.0bn

    Exit at 16.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 72.07

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 42.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 22.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 30.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 11.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.6bn

    Spread between methods: 90%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.28%57.6056.6455.8355.2655.13
    6.28%40.7439.6338.5237.4136.30
    7.28%29.1528.2427.3426.4325.53
    8.28%20.3519.6018.8518.1017.34
    9.28%13.4612.8212.1911.5510.92

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 73.02. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.2%4.0%10.0%
    EBIT margin23.5%22.8%37.9%
    Discount rate-7.3%4.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.