DCF Studio

    LOG.MC · MCE · Industrials

    Logista Integral, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 31.94

    Market price

    EUR 35.34

    Implied upside

    -9.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.35% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.19% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 31.94-9.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 36.09+2.1%
    Market price
    EUR 35.34

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m81m162mFY25FY26FY27FY28FY29
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY25FY26FY27FY28FY29CAGR
    RevenueEUR 13.8bnEUR 14.7bnEUR 15.6bnEUR 16.6bnEUR 17.6bn+6.3%
    EBITEUR 316.3mEUR 336.1mEUR 357.2mEUR 379.7mEUR 403.5m+6.3%
    NOPATEUR 237.2mEUR 252.1mEUR 267.9mEUR 284.8mEUR 302.6m+6.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 164.3mEUR 174.6mEUR 185.6mEUR 197.2mEUR 209.6m+6.3%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -164.3mEUR -174.6mEUR -185.6mEUR -197.2mEUR -209.6m+6.3%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -110.5mEUR -117.5mEUR -124.9mEUR -132.7mEUR -141.0m+6.3%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 126.7mEUR 134.6mEUR 143.1mEUR 152.0mEUR 161.6m+6.3%
    Discount factor0.96240.89140.82570.76480.7084-
    Present valueEUR 121.9mEUR 120.0mEUR 118.1mEUR 116.3mEUR 114.5m-1.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 590.8m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.623Reported 0.437, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.25%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 4.7bn94.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 276.4m5.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.96%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 31.94

    86% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 161.6m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 302.6m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (7.3% of NOPAT)
    EUR -22.0m
    Capitalised
    EUR 280.7m
    ROIC (reported)
    34.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 5.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 3.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 4.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 107.3m
    Equity value
    EUR 4.2bn

    Exit at 9.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 36.09

    88% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 6.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 4.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 4.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 107.3m
    Equity value
    EUR 4.8bn

    Spread between methods: 12%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.96%42.3246.7252.3959.9670.59
    6.96%33.8836.5739.8543.9649.25
    7.96%28.0729.8431.9434.4437.51
    8.96%23.8425.0726.4928.1430.09
    9.96%20.6321.5222.5223.6724.99

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 35.34. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year6.3%9.9%+3.7pp
    EBIT margin2.3%2.5%+0.2pp
    Discount rate8.0%7.5%-0.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.