DCF Studio

    LOGN.SW · EBS · Technology

    Logitech International S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    CHF 153.96

    Market price

    CHF 83.06

    Implied upside

    +85.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · USD model at 0.8218

    AdjustedReports in USD, trades in CHF. Modelled in USD, converted at the end.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    CHF 153.96+85.4%
    Exit multiple
    CHF 70.57-15.0%
    Market price
    CHF 83.06

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m335m671mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.4bn+2.2%
    EBITUSD 686.2mUSD 701.1mUSD 716.3mUSD 731.9mUSD 747.7m+2.2%
    NOPATUSD 601.8mUSD 614.8mUSD 628.2mUSD 641.8mUSD 655.7m+2.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 93.2mUSD 95.3mUSD 97.3mUSD 99.5mUSD 101.6m+2.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -72.2mUSD -73.8mUSD -75.4mUSD -77.0mUSD -78.7m+2.2%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -7.1mUSD -7.3mUSD -7.4mUSD -7.6mUSD -7.7m+2.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 615.7mUSD 629.1mUSD 642.7mUSD 656.7mUSD 670.9m+2.2%
    Discount factor0.97740.93360.89180.85180.8137-
    Present valueUSD 601.8mUSD 587.3mUSD 573.2mUSD 559.4mUSD 545.9m-2.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 2.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate0.50%CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.765Reported 0.649, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity4.71%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.50%Assumed: risk-free + 2bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.9bn99.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 88.2m0.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC4.69%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 187.34

    89% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 670.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 676.5m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (9.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -66.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 609.8m
    ROIC (reported)
    25.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 28.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 23.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 26.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -1.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 27.8bn

    Exit at 11.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 85.87

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 10.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -1.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 12.7bn

    Spread between methods: 74%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    2.69%357.06584.592021.32——
    3.69%200.22246.81332.56542.811870.39
    4.69%141.76160.32187.34230.32309.41
    5.69%111.20120.72133.19150.29175.16
    6.69%92.4297.99104.89113.63125.09

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 101.07. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year2.2%-11.6%-13.8pp
    EBIT margin13.9%6.9%-7.0pp
    Discount rate4.7%6.9%+2.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.