LTMC.MI · MIL · Consumer Cyclical
Lottomatica Group S.p.A.
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
EUR 68.83
Market price
EUR 27.09
Implied upside
+154.1%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 2.6bn | EUR 3.1bn | EUR 3.6bn | EUR 4.2bn | EUR 5.0bn | +17.2% |
| EBIT | EUR 501.6m | EUR 588.0m | EUR 689.3m | EUR 808.0m | EUR 947.2m | +17.2% |
| NOPAT | EUR 376.2m | EUR 441.0m | EUR 516.9m | EUR 606.0m | EUR 710.4m | +17.2% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 307.9m | EUR 360.9m | EUR 423.1m | EUR 496.0m | EUR 581.4m | +17.2% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -219.4m | EUR -257.2m | EUR -301.5m | EUR -353.4m | EUR -414.3m | +17.2% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR -39.5m | EUR -46.3m | EUR -54.3m | EUR -63.6m | EUR -74.6m | +17.2% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 425.2m | EUR 498.4m | EUR 584.3m | EUR 685.0m | EUR 803.0m | +17.2% |
| Discount factor | 0.9698 | 0.9120 | 0.8577 | 0.8067 | 0.7586 | - |
| Present value | EUR 412.3m | EUR 454.6m | EUR 501.2m | EUR 552.5m | EUR 609.1m | +10.2% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 2.5bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.300 | Clamped from a reported -0.064 |
| Cost of equity | 6.15% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 9.18% | Interest expense / average total debt |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 6.3bn | 75.4% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 2.1bn | 24.6% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.33% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
86% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 803.0m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 1.0bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.3% of NOPAT)
- EUR -236.6m
- Capitalised
- EUR 776.8m
- ROIC (reported)
- 10.7%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 20.8bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 15.8bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 18.3bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 1.9bn
- Equity value
- EUR 16.4bn
Exit at 11.5x EBITDA
84% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 17.6bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 13.4bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 15.9bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 1.9bn
- Equity value
- EUR 14.0bn
Spread between methods: 16%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.33% | 111.61 | 128.34 | 154.11 | 199.11 | 298.07 |
| 5.33% | 79.65 | 86.79 | 96.40 | 110.06 | 131.10 |
| 6.33% | 60.94 | 64.45 | 68.83 | 74.48 | 82.08 |
| 7.33% | 48.68 | 50.51 | 52.69 | 55.34 | 58.64 |
| 8.33% | 40.02 | 40.99 | 42.09 | 43.38 | 44.91 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 27.09. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 17.2% | -1.2% | -18.4pp |
| EBIT margin | 19.0% | 4.8% | -14.2pp |
| Discount rate | 6.3% | 10.8% | +4.4pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.