DCF Studio

    LVS · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 24.98

    Market price

    USD 38.20

    Implied upside

    -34.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 24.98-34.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 29.56-22.6%
    Market price
    USD 38.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 13.5bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 14.5bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 16.5bnUSD 16.9bnUSD 17.4bnUSD 17.8bn+3.2%
    EBITUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bn+3.2%
    NOPATUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+3.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bn+3.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.2bn+6.2%
    Capex, % of revenue13.7%14.1%14.6%15.0%15.5%15.9%16.4%16.8%17.3%17.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -18.0mUSD -20.7mUSD -20.6mUSD -20.4mUSD -20.1mUSD -19.7mUSD -19.3mUSD -18.7mUSD -18.1mUSD -17.4m-0.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn-1.3%
    Discount factor0.96650.90290.84350.78800.73610.68770.64240.60020.56070.5238-
    Present valueUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 930.9mUSD 849.0mUSD 771.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 11.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.835Reported 0.754, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.43%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 4.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 24.7bn61.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 15.8bn38.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.04%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 24.98

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -372.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 29.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 11.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.3bn

    Exit at 7.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 29.56

    64% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 39.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 20.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 11.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 20.5bn

    Spread between methods: 17%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.04%44.1948.7955.3065.1581.56
    6.04%31.2133.2235.8939.5244.68
    7.04%22.8923.8124.9826.5128.55
    8.04%17.1117.4917.9818.6319.46
    9.04%12.8412.9513.1013.3213.62

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 38.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year46.9%3.2%6.5%
    EBIT margin23.7%12.4%16.4%
    Discount rate-7.0%5.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.