DCF Studio

    LYB · NYQ · Basic Materials

    LyondellBasell Industries N.V.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 76.32

    Market price

    USD 66.88

    Implied upside

    +14.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 76.32+14.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 108.25+61.8%
    Market price
    USD 66.88

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 32.8bnUSD 32.5bnUSD 32.4bnUSD 32.3bnUSD 32.5bnUSD 32.7bnUSD 33.1bnUSD 33.7bnUSD 34.4bnUSD 35.2bn+0.8%
    EBITUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bn+0.8%
    NOPATUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bn+0.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+0.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.0bn+2.0%
    Capex, % of revenue5.0%5.1%5.1%5.2%5.3%5.3%5.4%5.5%5.5%5.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -300.2mUSD 32.7mUSD 16.8mUSD 1.2mUSD -14.3mUSD -30.0mUSD -45.9mUSD -62.4mUSD -79.6mUSD -97.7m-11.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+0.9%
    Discount factor0.96870.90910.85310.80060.75140.70510.66170.62100.58280.5469-
    Present valueUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 937.5mUSD 880.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 12.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.544Reported 0.319, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.19%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a B rating at 1.7x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 21.6bn59.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 14.6bn40.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.56%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 76.32

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -540.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 43.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 23.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 35.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 11.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 24.6bn

    Exit at 14.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 108.25

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 61.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 33.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 46.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 11.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 34.9bn

    Spread between methods: 35%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.56%138.63154.82179.33220.19300.54
    5.56%96.30102.49111.01123.21141.77
    6.56%70.7273.1276.3280.6686.70
    7.56%53.5954.3155.3256.7358.69
    8.56%41.3341.2341.2341.3741.70

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 66.88. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-15.8%1.6%0.5%
    EBIT margin10.2%7.8%7.2%
    Discount rate-6.6%7.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.