DCF Studio

    LYV · NYQ · Communication Services

    Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 73.89

    Market price

    USD 177.15

    Implied upside

    -58.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 23.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 73.89-58.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 148.03-16.4%
    Market price
    USD 177.15

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 28.1bnUSD 30.7bnUSD 33.3bnUSD 35.9bnUSD 38.3bnUSD 40.5bnUSD 42.6bnUSD 44.3bnUSD 45.8bnUSD 47.0bn+5.9%
    EBITUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn+5.9%
    NOPATUSD 958.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+5.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 694.8mUSD 759.3mUSD 823.3mUSD 885.7mUSD 945.3mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+5.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -805.2mUSD -861.9mUSD -915.1mUSD -963.5mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bn+3.5%
    Capex, % of revenue2.9%2.8%2.7%2.7%2.6%2.6%2.5%2.5%2.4%2.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 26.8mUSD 23.9mUSD 23.7mUSD 23.1mUSD 22.1mUSD 20.6mUSD 18.7mUSD 16.3mUSD 13.6mUSD 10.5m+9.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 874.8mUSD 968.5mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bn+7.5%
    Discount factor0.95980.88410.81430.75010.69090.63650.58630.54000.49740.4582-
    Present valueUSD 839.6mUSD 856.2mUSD 869.2mUSD 875.3mUSD 874.3mUSD 866.0mUSD 850.8mUSD 828.8mUSD 800.7mUSD 767.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.105Reported 1.157, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.57%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 41.3bn79.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 10.4bn20.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.56%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 73.89

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -474.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 148.03

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 63.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 29.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 37.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 34.3bn

    Spread between methods: 67%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.56%110.29113.57117.88123.68131.69
    7.56%88.9190.0291.5393.5896.36
    8.56%73.6273.6873.8974.3074.95
    9.56%62.1661.6861.2560.8860.58
    10.56%53.2652.5051.7551.0150.26

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 177.15. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year14.7%6.4%15.9%
    EBIT margin4.9%4.3%10.3%
    Discount rate-8.6%5.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.