DCF Studio

    MAA · NYQ · Real Estate

    Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 48.63

    Market price

    USD 118.34

    Implied upside

    -58.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 48.63-58.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 106.56-10.0%
    Market price
    USD 118.34

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m463m925mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bn+2.4%
    EBITUSD 675.5mUSD 691.1mUSD 707.3mUSD 724.0mUSD 741.2mUSD 759.1mUSD 777.5mUSD 796.6mUSD 816.4mUSD 836.8m+2.4%
    NOPATUSD 669.0mUSD 684.5mUSD 700.5mUSD 717.0mUSD 734.1mUSD 751.8mUSD 770.1mUSD 789.0mUSD 808.5mUSD 828.7m+2.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 603.1mUSD 617.1mUSD 631.5mUSD 646.4mUSD 661.9mUSD 677.8mUSD 694.3mUSD 711.3mUSD 728.9mUSD 747.2m+2.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -343.1mUSD -405.7mUSD -471.1mUSD -539.5mUSD -611.0mUSD -685.7mUSD -763.9mUSD -845.7mUSD -931.2mUSD -1.0bn+12.9%
    Capex, % of revenue15.4%17.8%20.2%22.6%25.0%27.4%29.8%32.2%34.6%37.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -3.8mUSD -9.8mUSD -10.1mUSD -10.5mUSD -10.8mUSD -11.2mUSD -11.6mUSD -12.0mUSD -12.4mUSD -12.8m+14.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 925.2mUSD 886.1mUSD 850.7mUSD 813.5mUSD 774.2mUSD 732.7mUSD 688.9mUSD 642.6mUSD 593.9mUSD 542.4m-5.8%
    Discount factor0.96410.89630.83310.77450.71990.66920.62210.57830.53760.4997-
    Present valueUSD 892.1mUSD 794.1mUSD 708.8mUSD 630.0mUSD 557.3mUSD 490.3mUSD 428.5mUSD 371.6mUSD 319.3mUSD 271.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.802Reported 0.705, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.29%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 14.1bn72.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.4bn27.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate1.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.58%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 48.63

    51% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 542.4m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 828.7m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -273.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 555.2m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 11.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 5.7bn

    Exit at 15.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 106.56

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 24.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 17.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 12.5bn

    Spread between methods: 75%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.58%84.9884.3884.1084.3285.40
    6.58%64.4063.0661.7160.3759.03
    7.58%50.8449.7348.6347.5346.43
    8.58%40.4139.4938.5637.6436.72
    9.58%32.1431.3530.5729.7929.01

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 118.34. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.0%2.3%9.4%
    EBIT margin32.1%30.3%55.0%
    Discount rate-7.6%4.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.