DCF Studio

    MAP.MC · MCE · Financial Services

    Mapfre, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 18.66

    Market price

    EUR 4.40

    Implied upside

    +323.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.96% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.0% of revenue against depreciation of 0.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 18.66+323.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 14.63+232.3%
    Market price
    EUR 4.40

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 28.1bnEUR 30.0bnEUR 32.1bnEUR 34.2bnEUR 36.5bn+6.7%
    EBITEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.7bn+6.7%
    NOPATEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.1bn+6.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 0.00EUR 0.00EUR 0.00EUR 0.00EUR 0.00-
    Less capital expenditureEUR -281.3mEUR -300.3mEUR -320.5mEUR -342.1mEUR -365.2m+6.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -1.3mEUR -1.4mEUR -1.5mEUR -1.6mEUR -1.7m+6.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.7bn+6.7%
    Discount factor0.96700.90430.84560.79070.7394-
    Present valueEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bn-0.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 6.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.497Reported 0.249, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.43%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.20%Assumed: risk-free + 2bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationEUR 13.5bn81.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 3.0bn18.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate23.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.94%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 18.66

    82% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 2.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (19.8% of NOPAT)
    EUR -412.3m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 38.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 28.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 34.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -22.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 57.2bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 14.63

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 21.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 16.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 22.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -22.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 44.8bn

    Spread between methods: 24%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.94%23.6925.4427.9031.6237.91
    5.94%19.9720.8321.9423.4225.49
    6.94%17.6218.0918.6619.3820.29
    7.94%16.0016.2716.5916.9717.43
    8.94%14.8214.9815.1615.3715.62

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 4.40. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin7.5%-7.2%-14.7pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.