DCF Studio

    MAR · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Marriott International, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 160.09

    Market price

    USD 416.30

    Implied upside

    -61.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 26.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 160.09-61.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 276.85-33.5%
    Market price
    USD 416.30

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 27.8bnUSD 29.5bnUSD 31.2bnUSD 32.8bnUSD 34.4bnUSD 35.9bnUSD 37.2bnUSD 38.5bnUSD 39.7bnUSD 40.6bn+4.3%
    EBITUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.5bn+4.3%
    NOPATUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bn+4.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 556.4mUSD 590.6mUSD 624.3mUSD 657.0mUSD 688.4mUSD 718.2mUSD 746.0mUSD 771.5mUSD 794.3mUSD 814.1m+4.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -611.0mUSD -681.6mUSD -755.3mUSD -831.6mUSD -909.9mUSD -989.4mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bn+8.8%
    Capex, % of revenue2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -130.6mUSD -140.4mUSD -138.0mUSD -134.1mUSD -128.8mUSD -122.1mUSD -114.0mUSD -104.4mUSD -93.5mUSD -81.4m-5.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bn+3.6%
    Discount factor0.95860.88080.80930.74360.68330.62790.57690.53010.48710.4476-
    Present valueUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 26.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.092Reported 1.138, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.52%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 5.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 108.6bn86.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 17.1bn13.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.83%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 160.09

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 4.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 5.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (9.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -489.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 4.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    26.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 75.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 33.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 60.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 16.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 43.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 276.85

    71% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 147.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 65.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 92.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 16.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 75.7bn

    Spread between methods: 53%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.83%228.17242.82261.05284.27314.71
    7.83%181.96190.63201.09213.87229.80
    8.83%148.42153.77160.09167.62176.71
    9.83%122.99126.36130.29134.91140.36
    10.83%103.06105.19107.67110.54113.91

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 416.30. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year8.0%4.5%14.2%
    EBIT margin16.7%16.1%34.4%
    Discount rate-8.8%5.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.