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    MAS · NYQ · Industrials

    Masco Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 62.31

    Market price

    USD 83.51

    Implied upside

    -25.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 2.5% of revenue against depreciation of 1.9%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 62.31-25.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 70.46-15.6%
    Market price
    USD 83.51

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.5bn+2.3%
    EBITUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bn+2.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+2.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 142.9mUSD 145.9mUSD 149.0mUSD 152.3mUSD 155.7mUSD 159.2mUSD 163.0mUSD 166.9mUSD 171.0mUSD 175.2m+2.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -189.7mUSD -191.7mUSD -193.8mUSD -196.1mUSD -198.4mUSD -200.8mUSD -203.4mUSD -206.0mUSD -208.8mUSD -211.7m+1.2%
    Capex, % of revenue2.5%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -24.4mUSD -26.2mUSD -27.4mUSD -28.7mUSD -30.0mUSD -31.4mUSD -32.9mUSD -34.4mUSD -36.0mUSD -37.7m+4.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 939.1mUSD 959.2mUSD 981.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+2.4%
    Discount factor0.95870.88120.80990.74440.68430.62890.57810.53130.48840.4489-
    Present valueUSD 900.3mUSD 845.3mUSD 794.6mUSD 747.3mUSD 703.1mUSD 662.0mUSD 623.5mUSD 587.6mUSD 554.1mUSD 522.7m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.141Reported 1.210, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.72%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 12.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 16.1bn83.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.2bn16.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.80%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 62.31

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (6.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -82.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    38.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 19.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.1bn

    Exit at 13.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 70.46

    60% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 23.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 17.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.8bn

    Spread between methods: 12%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.80%84.0889.5296.26104.83116.06
    7.80%68.7772.0976.0780.9386.95
    8.80%57.6759.8162.3165.2768.82
    9.80%49.2750.6852.3254.2256.44
    10.80%42.6843.6444.7446.0047.45

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 83.51. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-4.5%2.3%5.5%
    EBIT margin17.4%16.6%21.3%
    Discount rate-8.8%7.4%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.