MC.PA · PAR · Consumer Cyclical
LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
EUR 474.99
Market price
EUR 402.80
Implied upside
+17.9%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 81.4bn | EUR 81.9bn | EUR 82.5bn | EUR 83.0bn | EUR 83.6bn | +0.7% |
| EBIT | EUR 19.9bn | EUR 20.1bn | EUR 20.2bn | EUR 20.3bn | EUR 20.5bn | +0.7% |
| NOPAT | EUR 14.8bn | EUR 14.9bn | EUR 15.0bn | EUR 15.1bn | EUR 15.2bn | +0.7% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 7.2bn | EUR 7.2bn | EUR 7.3bn | EUR 7.3bn | EUR 7.4bn | +0.7% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -5.7bn | EUR -5.7bn | EUR -5.7bn | EUR -5.8bn | EUR -5.8bn | +0.7% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR 81.4m | EUR 82.0m | EUR 82.5m | EUR 83.1m | EUR 83.7m | -0.7% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 16.4bn | EUR 16.5bn | EUR 16.6bn | EUR 16.7bn | EUR 16.8bn | +0.7% |
| Discount factor | 0.9641 | 0.8962 | 0.8330 | 0.7743 | 0.7197 | - |
| Present value | EUR 15.8bn | EUR 14.8bn | EUR 13.8bn | EUR 12.9bn | EUR 12.1bn | -6.4% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 69.5bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 3.20% | EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.00% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.891 | Reported 0.837, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 8.54% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 3.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 198.6bn | 84.4% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 36.7bn | 15.6% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.8% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 7.58% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
73% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 16.8bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 15.2bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (13.7% of NOPAT)
- EUR -2.1bn
- Capitalised
- EUR 13.1bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 18.2%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 264.4bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 190.3bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 259.8bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 23.2bn
- Equity value
- EUR 236.5bn
Exit at 8.6x EBITDA
71% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 240.6bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 173.2bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 242.7bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 23.2bn
- Equity value
- EUR 219.5bn
Spread between methods: 7%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 5.58% | 644.47 | 704.97 | 784.89 | 895.52 | 1058.98 |
| 6.58% | 515.74 | 549.85 | 592.16 | 646.11 | 717.37 |
| 7.58% | 429.16 | 450.08 | 474.99 | 505.22 | 542.70 |
| 8.58% | 366.89 | 380.44 | 396.13 | 414.53 | 436.44 |
| 9.58% | 319.91 | 329.03 | 339.36 | 351.18 | 364.85 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 402.80. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 0.7% | -2.5% | -3.2pp |
| EBIT margin | 24.5% | 21.0% | -3.5pp |
| Discount rate | 7.6% | 8.5% | +0.9pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.