DCF Studio

    MDLZ · NMS · Consumer Defensive

    Mondelez International, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 46.00

    Market price

    USD 66.38

    Implied upside

    -30.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 20.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 46.00-30.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 80.70+21.6%
    Market price
    USD 66.38

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 39.9bnUSD 41.0bnUSD 42.0bnUSD 43.1bnUSD 44.2bnUSD 45.3bnUSD 46.4bnUSD 47.6bnUSD 48.8bnUSD 50.0bn+2.5%
    EBITUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.9bn+2.5%
    NOPATUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bn+2.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+2.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.5bn+11.7%
    Capex, % of revenue3.3%3.7%4.1%4.5%5.0%5.4%5.8%6.2%6.6%7.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 57.6mUSD 41.7mUSD 42.7mUSD 43.6mUSD 44.6mUSD 45.7mUSD 46.7mUSD 47.7mUSD 48.8mUSD 49.9m+1.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.7bn-2.1%
    Discount factor0.96810.90720.85020.79680.74670.69980.65580.61460.57600.5398-
    Present valueUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 30.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.569Reported 0.356, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.30%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 6.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 84.0bn79.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 21.8bn20.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.71%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 46.00

    61% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 5.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.8bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    7.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 89.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 48.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 79.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 59.7bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 80.70

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 173.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 93.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 124.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 104.7bn

    Spread between methods: 55%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.71%81.8787.4795.95109.85135.91
    5.71%59.6561.1063.2366.4171.35
    6.71%45.9545.9046.0046.3146.93
    7.71%36.6736.0335.3934.7534.11
    8.71%30.7730.2429.7029.1728.63

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 66.38. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.0%2.6%6.0%
    EBIT margin18.3%13.8%18.5%
    Discount rate-6.7%5.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.