DCF Studio

    MDLZ · NMS · Consumer Defensive

    Mondelez International, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 44.34

    Market price

    USD 60.85

    Implied upside

    -27.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 44.34-27.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 99.56+63.6%
    Market price
    USD 60.85

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 41.2bnUSD 44.1bnUSD 47.2bnUSD 50.4bnUSD 53.9bn+7.0%
    EBITUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.5bn+7.0%
    NOPATUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.9bn+7.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+7.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bn+7.0%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bn+7.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.4bn+7.0%
    Discount factor0.96520.89920.83770.78040.7270-
    Present valueUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bn-0.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 16.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.599Reported 0.402, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.29%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 77.7bn78.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 21.8bn21.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.34%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 44.34

    79% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 4.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 5.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.9bn
    Capitalised
    USD 4.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    7.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 84.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 61.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 77.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 57.6bn

    Exit at 19.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 99.56

    89% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 182.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 132.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 148.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 129.2bn

    Spread between methods: 77%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.34%74.1878.9085.2194.10107.70
    6.34%55.5857.3259.4662.1765.76
    7.34%43.3643.8244.3444.9345.61
    8.34%35.4435.6335.8236.0136.20
    9.34%29.6629.8229.9830.1430.31

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 60.85. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year7.0%14.4%+7.5pp
    EBIT margin13.8%17.4%+3.6pp
    Discount rate7.3%6.3%-1.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.