DCF Studio

    MDT · NYQ · Healthcare

    Medtronic plc

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 76.76

    Market price

    USD 99.29

    Implied upside

    -22.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-04-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 76.76-22.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 104.28+5.0%
    Market price
    USD 99.29

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn7bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 39.0bnUSD 40.4bnUSD 41.8bnUSD 43.2bnUSD 44.6bnUSD 46.0bnUSD 47.4bnUSD 48.7bnUSD 50.0bnUSD 51.2bn+3.1%
    EBITUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.5bn+3.1%
    NOPATUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.5bn+3.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bn+3.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.6bnUSD -4.9bn+10.6%
    Capex, % of revenue5.1%5.6%6.1%6.6%7.1%7.6%8.1%8.6%9.1%9.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -720.2mUSD -394.4mUSD -392.6mUSD -389.6mUSD -385.4mUSD -379.9mUSD -373.1mUSD -365.0mUSD -355.7mUSD -345.0m-7.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.5bn+0.4%
    Discount factor0.96570.90060.83990.78330.73050.68120.63530.59250.55250.5153-
    Present valueUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 47.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.711Reported 0.568, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.90%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 9.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 127.0bn82.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 28.0bn18.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.23%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 76.76

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 6.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 9.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (34.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -3.3bn
    Capitalised
    USD 6.3bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 136.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 70.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 117.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 18.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 98.9bn

    Exit at 14.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 104.28

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 204.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 105.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 153.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 18.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 134.3bn

    Spread between methods: 30%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.23%124.12126.28129.80135.61145.66
    6.23%95.5094.3793.3192.3991.66
    7.23%79.2277.9976.7675.5374.30
    8.23%67.5266.5065.4864.4663.44
    9.23%58.3857.5256.6655.8054.94

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 99.29. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.2%3.5%6.3%
    EBIT margin19.5%18.5%24.2%
    Discount rate-7.2%6.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.