ME8U.SI · SES · Real Estate

Mapletree Industrial Trust

Also onConsensus Drift

Implied value per share

SGD 1.62

Market price

SGD 1.91

Implied upside

-15.3%

5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.01% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.0% of revenue against depreciation of 0.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

Value Per Share

Perpetuity growth

SGD 1.62-15.3%

Exit multiple

SGD 2.09+9.6%

Market price

SGD 1.91

Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

Assumptions

Discount rate (WACC)6.67%Growth after the forecast2.50%Exit EV/EBITDA17.6xTax rate9.81%Capex, % of revenue1.00%Depreciation, % of revenue0.01%Working capital, % of revenue growth-17.89%

Forecast Cashflows

Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.

Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todaySGD

Line	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	CAGR
Revenue	SGD 655.1m	SGD 666.6m	SGD 678.3m	SGD 690.1m	SGD 702.2m	+1.8%
EBIT	SGD 456.9m	SGD 464.9m	SGD 473.1m	SGD 481.4m	SGD 489.8m	+1.8%
NOPAT	SGD 412.1m	SGD 419.3m	SGD 426.7m	SGD 434.1m	SGD 441.7m	+1.8%
Add depreciation & amortisation	SGD 45.6k	SGD 46.4k	SGD 47.2k	SGD 48.1k	SGD 48.9k	+1.8%
Less capital expenditure	SGD -6.6m	SGD -6.7m	SGD -6.8m	SGD -6.9m	SGD -7.0m	+1.8%
Less increase in working capital	SGD 2.0m	SGD 2.1m	SGD 2.1m	SGD 2.1m	SGD 2.2m	-1.8%
Free cashflow to firm	SGD 407.6m	SGD 414.8m	SGD 422.0m	SGD 429.4m	SGD 436.9m	+1.8%
Discount factor	0.9682	0.9077	0.8509	0.7977	0.7479	-
Present value	SGD 394.7m	SGD 376.5m	SGD 359.1m	SGD 342.6m	SGD 326.8m	-4.6%
Present Value Of The Forecast	SGD 1.8bn

Discount Rate

Source shown per component. All overridable above.

Risk-free rate	4.20%	USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
Equity risk premium	6.50%	Market assumption
Beta	0.569	Reported 0.357, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
Cost of equity	7.90%	Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
Cost of debt	4.23%	Interest expense / average total debt
Market capitalisation	SGD 5.5bn	69.8% of capital
Total debt	SGD 2.4bn	30.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
Tax rate	9.8%	Effective, capped at statutory
WACC	6.67%	E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

Terminal Value

Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

Value per shareSGD 1.62

74% of EV

Forecast FCFF, final year: SGD 436.9m
Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment: SGD 441.7m
Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.5% of NOPAT): SGD -165.6m
Capitalised: SGD 276.2m
ROIC (WACC floor): 6.7%

Terminal value, undiscounted: SGD 6.8bn
Terminal value, discounted: SGD 5.1bn
Enterprise value: SGD 6.9bn
Less net debt: SGD 2.3bn
Equity value: SGD 4.6bn

Exit at 17.6x EBITDA

Value per shareSGD 2.09

78% of EV

Terminal value, undiscounted: SGD 8.6bn
Terminal value, discounted: SGD 6.4bn
Enterprise value: SGD 8.2bn
Less net debt: SGD 2.3bn
Equity value: SGD 6.0bn

Spread between methods: 26%.

Sensitivity

Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

Long-run growth
Discount rate	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
4.67%	2.69	2.76	2.84	2.97	3.20
5.67%	2.02	2.03	2.04	2.05	2.06
6.67%	1.60	1.61	1.62	1.63	1.64
7.67%	1.29	1.30	1.31	1.32	1.32
8.67%	1.06	1.06	1.07	1.08	1.08

Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 1.91. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

Priced In

What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

Input	Model	Implied	Gap
Revenue growth, every year	1.8%	4.3%	+2.6pp
EBIT margin	69.7%	78.2%	+8.4pp
Discount rate	6.7%	5.9%	-0.7pp

Download as Excel

Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.