DCF Studio

    META · NMS · Communication Services

    Meta Platforms, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 647.48

    Market price

    USD 606.73

    Implied upside

    +6.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 26.0% of revenue against depreciation of 8.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 647.48+6.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 993.79+63.8%
    Market price
    USD 606.73

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn91bn183bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 256.9bnUSD 312.4bnUSD 372.5bnUSD 435.2bnUSD 498.1bnUSD 558.2bnUSD 612.1bnUSD 656.7bnUSD 688.8bnUSD 706.0bn+11.9%
    EBITUSD 91.9bnUSD 111.8bnUSD 133.2bnUSD 155.7bnUSD 178.2bnUSD 199.7bnUSD 219.0bnUSD 234.9bnUSD 246.4bnUSD 252.6bn+11.9%
    NOPATUSD 74.9bnUSD 91.0bnUSD 108.6bnUSD 126.8bnUSD 145.2bnUSD 162.7bnUSD 178.4bnUSD 191.4bnUSD 200.7bnUSD 205.8bn+11.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 22.1bnUSD 26.9bnUSD 32.1bnUSD 37.4bnUSD 42.9bnUSD 48.0bnUSD 52.7bnUSD 56.5bnUSD 59.3bnUSD 60.8bn+11.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -66.9bnUSD -76.4bnUSD -85.1bnUSD -92.5bnUSD -98.0bnUSD -100.9bnUSD -100.9bnUSD -97.8bnUSD -91.7bnUSD -82.7bn+2.4%
    Capex, % of revenue26.0%24.4%22.8%21.3%19.7%18.1%16.5%14.9%13.3%11.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.1bnUSD -4.1bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.1bn-12.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 26.5bnUSD 38.0bnUSD 51.6bnUSD 67.7bnUSD 86.0bnUSD 105.9bnUSD 126.6bnUSD 147.2bnUSD 166.3bnUSD 182.7bn+23.9%
    Discount factor0.95510.87120.79470.72490.66120.60320.55020.50190.45780.4176-
    Present valueUSD 25.3bnUSD 33.1bnUSD 41.0bnUSD 49.1bnUSD 56.9bnUSD 63.9bnUSD 69.7bnUSD 73.9bnUSD 76.1bnUSD 76.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 565.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.187Reported 1.279, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.91%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 71.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 1551.3bn94.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 83.9bn5.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.63%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 647.48

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 182.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 205.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (10.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -22.0bn
    Capitalised
    USD 183.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    23.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 2643.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 1103.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 1668.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 1666.6bn

    Exit at 15.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 993.79

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 4777.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 1995.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 2560.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 2558.0bn

    Spread between methods: 42%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.63%869.29907.60954.061011.331083.33
    8.63%724.51747.62775.05807.94847.90
    9.63%616.57630.81647.48667.14690.52
    10.63%533.29542.07552.29564.23578.27
    11.63%467.30472.59478.77485.98494.44

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 606.73. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year19.9%13.4%12.6%
    EBIT margin42.2%35.8%33.8%
    Discount rate-9.6%10.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.