DCF Studio

    MGM · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    MGM Resorts International

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -49.28

    Market price

    USD 30.56

    Implied upside

    -261.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -49.28-261.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 12.30-59.8%
    Market price
    USD 30.56

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 17.6bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 17.8bnUSD 18.0bnUSD 18.3bnUSD 18.6bnUSD 18.9bnUSD 19.3bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 20.2bn+1.6%
    EBITUSD 617.6mUSD 621.8mUSD 627.4mUSD 634.6mUSD 643.2mUSD 653.5mUSD 665.3mUSD 678.9mUSD 694.4mUSD 711.7m+1.6%
    NOPATUSD 551.4mUSD 555.1mUSD 560.2mUSD 566.6mUSD 574.3mUSD 583.4mUSD 594.0mUSD 606.2mUSD 620.0mUSD 635.5m+1.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+1.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bn+8.6%
    Capex, % of revenue6.1%6.6%7.2%7.8%8.3%8.9%9.4%10.0%10.6%11.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.3mUSD -5.6mUSD -7.5mUSD -9.4mUSD -11.4mUSD -13.5mUSD -15.7mUSD -17.9mUSD -20.3mUSD -22.9m+37.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 970.0mUSD 879.8mUSD 788.4mUSD 694.8mUSD 598.4mUSD 498.5m-10.4%
    Discount factor0.97070.91460.86180.81210.76520.72100.67930.64010.60310.5683-
    Present valueUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 990.2mUSD 860.3mUSD 742.2mUSD 634.3mUSD 535.6mUSD 444.8mUSD 361.0mUSD 283.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.217Reported 1.324, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.04%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 7.7bn19.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 31.4bn80.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate10.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.13%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -49.28

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 498.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 635.5m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -114.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 521.3m
    ROIC (reported)
    13.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 14.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 29.3bn
    Equity value
    USD -13.7bn

    Exit at 15.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 12.30

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 44.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 25.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 29.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 3.4bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.13%-23.14-13.163.0833.94114.26
    5.13%-42.39-38.45-32.92-24.69-11.27
    6.13%-53.46-51.65-49.28-46.09-41.60
    7.13%-60.70-59.83-58.72-57.29-55.41
    8.13%-65.85-65.43-64.91-64.25-63.41

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 30.56. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year10.1%1.4%12.9%
    EBIT margin9.8%3.5%9.8%
    Discount rate-6.1%3.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.