DCF Studio

    MKC · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    McCormick & Company, Incorporated

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 43.68

    Market price

    USD 48.82

    Implied upside

    -10.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-11-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 43.68-10.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 54.36+11.3%
    Market price
    USD 48.82

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m445m890mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.1bn+2.7%
    EBITUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bn+2.7%
    NOPATUSD 965.8mUSD 993.6mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+2.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 250.4mUSD 257.6mUSD 264.9mUSD 272.3mUSD 279.7mUSD 287.2mUSD 294.8mUSD 302.4mUSD 310.1mUSD 317.9m+2.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -305.5mUSD -339.9mUSD -375.8mUSD -413.3mUSD -452.3mUSD -493.0mUSD -535.2mUSD -579.2mUSD -624.7mUSD -671.9m+9.2%
    Capex, % of revenue3.9%4.2%4.5%4.8%5.1%5.4%5.7%6.1%6.4%6.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -99.4mUSD -20.8mUSD -21.1mUSD -21.3mUSD -21.5mUSD -21.8mUSD -22.0mUSD -22.1mUSD -22.3mUSD -22.5m-15.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 811.3mUSD 890.5mUSD 889.6mUSD 887.7mUSD 884.5mUSD 880.1mUSD 874.4mUSD 867.5mUSD 859.2mUSD 849.5m+0.5%
    Discount factor0.96550.90000.83890.78200.72890.67950.63340.59040.55030.5130-
    Present valueUSD 783.3mUSD 801.4mUSD 746.3mUSD 694.1mUSD 644.7mUSD 598.0mUSD 553.8mUSD 512.1mUSD 472.8mUSD 435.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.778Reported 0.669, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.19%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 5.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 13.1bn75.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.2bn24.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.28%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 43.68

    61% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 849.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -354.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 871.9m
    ROIC (reported)
    8.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 18.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 11.8bn

    Exit at 13.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 54.36

    67% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 24.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.6bn

    Spread between methods: 22%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.28%73.8377.7583.3491.69105.12
    6.28%55.4956.6458.2860.6264.04
    7.28%43.4943.5243.6844.0344.63
    8.28%35.0434.5634.1133.6833.28
    9.28%29.1928.6628.1427.6127.09

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 48.82. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.5%3.9%5.0%
    EBIT margin16.0%15.4%16.7%
    Discount rate-7.3%6.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.