DCF Studio

    MMM · NYQ · Industrials

    3M Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -8.47

    Market price

    USD 178.36

    Implied upside

    -104.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -8.47-104.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 22.20-87.6%
    Market price
    USD 178.36

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m155m309mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 25.4bnUSD 26.6bnUSD 27.8bnUSD 28.9bnUSD 30.0bnUSD 31.1bnUSD 32.1bnUSD 33.1bnUSD 34.0bnUSD 34.8bn+3.6%
    EBITUSD 163.4mUSD 171.0mUSD 178.4mUSD 185.7mUSD 192.8mUSD 199.6mUSD 206.2mUSD 212.4mUSD 218.3mUSD 223.8m+3.6%
    NOPATUSD 136.1mUSD 142.4mUSD 148.6mUSD 154.7mUSD 160.6mUSD 166.3mUSD 171.8mUSD 177.0mUSD 181.9mUSD 186.4m+3.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+3.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bn+5.7%
    Capex, % of revenue5.4%5.5%5.7%5.8%5.9%6.0%6.2%6.3%6.4%6.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -91.6mUSD -219.4mUSD -216.4mUSD -212.1mUSD -206.5mUSD -199.5mUSD -191.3mUSD -181.7mUSD -170.9mUSD -158.8m+6.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 309.1mUSD 167.4mUSD 153.3mUSD 137.5mUSD 119.8mUSD 100.5mUSD 79.4mUSD 56.8mUSD 32.8mUSD 7.4m-33.9%
    Discount factor0.95820.87970.80760.74140.68070.62490.57370.52670.48350.4439-
    Present valueUSD 296.2mUSD 147.2mUSD 123.8mUSD 101.9mUSD 81.6mUSD 62.8mUSD 45.6mUSD 29.9mUSD 15.8mUSD 3.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 908.2m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.043Reported 1.064, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.31%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.38%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 92.0bn88.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 12.6bn12.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.92%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -8.47

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 7.4m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 186.4m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (10.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -20.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 166.2m
    ROIC (reported)
    23.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 2.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 1.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 2.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.7bn
    Equity value
    USD -4.6bn

    Exit at 16.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 22.20

    95% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 40.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 12.0bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.92%-7.32-7.08-6.79-6.41-5.93
    7.92%-8.09-7.96-7.79-7.58-7.33
    8.92%-8.65-8.57-8.47-8.35-8.21
    9.92%-9.07-9.02-8.96-8.89-8.80
    10.92%-9.39-9.36-9.33-9.28-9.23

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 178.36. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    EBIT margin19.6%0.6%30.3%
    Discount rate-8.9%2.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.