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    MNST · NMS · Consumer Defensive

    Monster Beverage Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 24.53

    Market price

    USD 48.02

    Implied upside

    -48.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedNo debt figure was reported for the latest year, so the 2024-12-31 figure is used. Override net debt if it has changed.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 3.2% of revenue against depreciation of 1.1%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 36.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 24.53-48.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 32.51-32.3%
    Market price
    USD 48.02

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 12.5bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 15.6bnUSD 16.1bnUSD 16.5bn+6.0%
    EBITUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bn+6.0%
    NOPATUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bn+6.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 107.1mUSD 117.4mUSD 127.6mUSD 137.6mUSD 147.2mUSD 156.1mUSD 164.2mUSD 171.2mUSD 177.0mUSD 181.4m+6.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -308.3mUSD -343.5mUSD -379.6mUSD -415.8mUSD -451.7mUSD -486.5mUSD -519.4mUSD -549.8mUSD -576.8mUSD -599.8m+7.7%
    Capex, % of revenue3.2%3.2%3.3%3.3%3.4%3.4%3.5%3.5%3.6%3.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -327.5mUSD -210.0mUSD -208.9mUSD -204.0mUSD -195.0mUSD -181.8mUSD -164.5mUSD -143.3mUSD -118.3mUSD -90.2m-13.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bn+7.7%
    Discount factor0.96350.89430.83020.77060.71530.66400.61640.57210.53110.4930-
    Present valueUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 16.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.672Reported 0.511, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.74%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 94.1bn99.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 374.0m0.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.73%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 24.53

    65% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -418.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    21.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 60.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 29.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 45.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 48.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 32.51

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 92.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 45.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 61.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 64.0bn

    Spread between methods: 28%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.73%33.8236.2739.5143.9850.50
    6.73%27.3028.6030.2432.3535.13
    7.73%22.8923.6324.5325.6427.04
    8.73%19.7120.1520.6621.2922.05
    9.73%17.3217.5717.8818.2418.67

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 48.02. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year9.5%7.1%15.9%
    EBIT margin29.2%26.8%52.6%
    Discount rate-7.7%5.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.