DCF Studio

    MONC.MI · MIL · Consumer Cyclical

    Moncler S.p.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 40.74

    Market price

    EUR 43.25

    Implied upside

    -5.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 40.74-5.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 51.01+17.9%
    Market price
    EUR 43.25

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 3.3bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.0bnEUR 4.3bn+6.4%
    EBITEUR 983.6mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bn+6.4%
    NOPATEUR 737.7mEUR 784.7mEUR 834.6mEUR 887.7mEUR 944.2m+6.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 337.9mEUR 359.4mEUR 382.3mEUR 406.6mEUR 432.5m+6.4%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -214.4mEUR -228.1mEUR -242.6mEUR -258.0mEUR -274.4m+6.4%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -54.5mEUR -58.0mEUR -61.6mEUR -65.6mEUR -69.7m+6.4%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 806.7mEUR 858.1mEUR 912.7mEUR 970.8mEUR 1.0bn+6.4%
    Discount factor0.95210.86310.78250.70930.6430-
    Present valueEUR 768.1mEUR 740.6mEUR 714.2mEUR 688.6mEUR 664.0m-3.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.046Reported 1.068, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.00%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 11.8bn91.2% of capital
    Total debtEUR 1.1bn8.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.31%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 40.74

    67% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 975.1m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (13.0% of NOPAT)
    EUR -127.2m
    Capitalised
    EUR 847.9m
    ROIC (reported)
    19.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 11.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 7.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 10.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -332.8m
    Equity value
    EUR 11.1bn

    Exit at 9.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 51.01

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 15.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 9.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 13.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -332.8m
    Equity value
    EUR 13.9bn

    Spread between methods: 22%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.31%49.4351.2953.4556.0159.09
    9.31%43.5044.7546.1747.8049.71
    10.31%38.9139.7740.7441.8343.07
    11.31%35.2535.8636.5337.2838.12
    12.31%32.2632.7033.1833.7034.28

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 43.25. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year6.4%8.0%+1.7pp
    EBIT margin29.5%31.5%+2.0pp
    Discount rate10.3%9.8%-0.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.