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    MOS · NYQ · Basic Materials

    The Mosaic Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 48.23

    Market price

    USD 19.03

    Implied upside

    +153.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 9.8% of revenue against depreciation of 7.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 48.23+153.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 34.96+83.7%
    Market price
    USD 19.03

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m492m985mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 12.1bnUSD 12.9bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 14.3bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 15.6bnUSD 16.2bnUSD 16.7bnUSD 17.2bnUSD 17.7bn+4.3%
    EBITUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bn+4.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+4.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 904.6mUSD 959.2mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+4.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.9bn+5.6%
    Capex, % of revenue9.8%10.0%10.1%10.2%10.4%10.5%10.6%10.8%10.9%11.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -16.3mUSD -151.5mUSD -148.9mUSD -144.8mUSD -139.2mUSD -132.1mUSD -123.5mUSD -113.4mUSD -101.9mUSD -89.2m+20.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 868.6mUSD 769.4mUSD 805.2mUSD 839.2mUSD 870.9mUSD 900.2mUSD 926.4mUSD 949.5mUSD 969.0mUSD 984.7m+1.4%
    Discount factor0.96790.90670.84940.79570.74540.69830.65420.61290.57410.5378-
    Present valueUSD 840.7mUSD 697.6mUSD 683.9mUSD 667.8mUSD 649.2mUSD 628.6mUSD 606.1mUSD 581.9mUSD 556.3mUSD 529.6m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.905Reported 0.858, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.72%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 6.0bn53.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.3bn46.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.75%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 48.23

    68% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 984.7m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -632.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 15.4bn

    Exit at 5.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 34.96

    60% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 18.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 11.1bn

    Spread between methods: 32%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.75%87.3289.2492.6098.61110.46
    5.75%62.8461.6660.4759.2958.10
    6.75%50.1449.1948.2347.2846.32
    7.75%40.7940.0039.2238.4337.65
    8.75%33.6332.9832.3231.6631.00

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 19.03. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-14.3%3.9%-4.3%
    EBIT margin25.0%12.2%7.2%
    Discount rate-6.7%11.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.