DCF Studio

    MPC · NYQ · Energy

    Marathon Petroleum Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 285.87

    Market price

    USD 430.39

    Implied upside

    -33.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 285.87-33.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 383.49-10.9%
    Market price
    USD 430.39

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn10bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 172.4bnUSD 154.5bnUSD 140.9bnUSD 130.8bnUSD 123.5bnUSD 118.7bnUSD 115.9bnUSD 115.0bnUSD 116.1bnUSD 119.0bn-4.0%
    EBITUSD 11.8bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.1bn-4.0%
    NOPATUSD 9.6bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.6bn-4.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bn-4.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.8bn+2.4%
    Capex, % of revenue1.8%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.7%2.9%3.0%3.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -2.0bnUSD 906.2mUSD 686.1mUSD 511.0mUSD 367.7mUSD 246.6mUSD 140.1mUSD 42.4mUSD -51.7mUSD -146.8m-25.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 8.4bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.4bn-4.8%
    Discount factor0.96640.90260.84300.78740.73540.68680.64150.59920.55960.5227-
    Present valueUSD 8.1bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 2.8bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 53.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.671Reported 0.509, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.73%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 4.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 120.9bn77.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 34.4bn22.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.07%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 285.87

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 6.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 5.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 123.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 64.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 118.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 30.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 87.5bn

    Exit at 16.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 383.49

    64% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 180.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 94.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 148.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 30.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 117.3bn

    Spread between methods: 29%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.07%440.28480.74537.81623.55765.38
    6.07%333.73352.41376.92410.10457.03
    7.07%265.07274.25285.87300.85320.58
    8.07%217.01221.47227.08234.16243.21
    9.07%181.42183.34185.82189.02193.11

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 430.39. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-9.2%-1.1%2.9%
    EBIT margin10.7%6.8%9.4%
    Discount rate-7.1%5.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.