DCF Studio

    MRNA · NMS · Healthcare

    Moderna, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 8.78

    Market price

    USD 154.04

    Implied upside

    -94.3%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 5.7% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 14.0% of revenue against depreciation of 7.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 8.78-94.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 8.26-94.6%
    Market price
    USD 154.04

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -633493723-3167468610FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 961.0mUSD 480.5mUSD 240.3mUSD 120.1mUSD 60.1m-50.0%
    EBITUSD -711.4mUSD -355.7mUSD -177.9mUSD -88.9mUSD -44.5m+50.0%
    NOPATUSD -621.3mUSD -310.6mUSD -155.3mUSD -77.7mUSD -38.8m+50.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 67.6mUSD 33.8mUSD 16.9mUSD 8.4mUSD 4.2m-50.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -134.4mUSD -67.2mUSD -33.6mUSD -16.8mUSD -8.4m-50.0%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 54.6mUSD 27.3mUSD 13.7mUSD 6.8mUSD 3.4m+50.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -633.5mUSD -316.7mUSD -158.4mUSD -79.2mUSD -39.6m+50.0%
    Discount factor0.95020.85800.77470.69940.6315-
    Present valueUSD -602.0mUSD -271.8mUSD -122.7mUSD -55.4mUSD -25.0m+54.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -1.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.071Reported 1.106, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.89%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 61.5bn97.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.3bn2.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.75%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 8.78

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -1.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 3.4bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 8.26

    16% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD -321.9m
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD -203.3m
    Enterprise value
    USD -1.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 3.2bn

    Spread between methods: 6%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.75%8.728.728.728.728.72
    9.75%8.758.758.758.758.75
    10.75%8.788.788.788.788.78
    11.75%8.818.818.818.818.81
    12.75%8.848.848.848.848.84

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 154.04. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.