DCF Studio

    MRNA · NMS · Healthcare

    Moderna, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -27.03

    Market price

    USD 220.83

    Implied upside

    -112.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 14.0% of revenue against depreciation of 7.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -27.03-112.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD -54.13-124.5%
    Market price
    USD 220.83

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -3028804781-15144023900FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bn+9.3%
    EBITUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.5bn-9.3%
    NOPATUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.0bn-9.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 147.8mUSD 171.9mUSD 196.9mUSD 222.1mUSD 246.7mUSD 269.9mUSD 290.6mUSD 307.8mUSD 320.8mUSD 328.8m+9.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -294.0mUSD -322.9mUSD -348.3mUSD -368.5mUSD -382.3mUSD -388.5mUSD -386.3mUSD -375.5mUSD -356.1mUSD -328.8m+1.3%
    Capex, % of revenue14.0%13.2%12.4%11.7%10.9%10.1%9.4%8.6%7.8%7.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -9.6mUSD -18.3mUSD -19.0mUSD -19.2mUSD -18.7mUSD -17.6mUSD -15.7mUSD -13.1mUSD -9.9mUSD -6.1m-4.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.0bn-8.0%
    Discount factor0.95550.87220.79620.72690.66360.60580.55300.50480.46080.4207-
    Present valueUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -15.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.111Reported 1.166, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.59%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a D rating at -307.4x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 88.2bn98.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.3bn1.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.54%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -27.03

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -15.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.5bn
    Equity value
    USD -10.5bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD -54.13

    41% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD -25.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD -10.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD -25.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.5bn
    Equity value
    USD -21.1bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.54%-30.72-30.72-30.72-30.72-30.72
    8.54%-28.81-28.81-28.81-28.81-28.81
    9.54%-27.03-27.03-27.03-27.03-27.03
    10.54%-25.36-25.36-25.36-25.36-25.36
    11.54%-23.81-23.81-23.81-23.81-23.81

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 220.83. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.