DCF Studio

    MRVL · NMS · Technology

    Marvell Technology, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 81.95

    Market price

    USD 171.41

    Implied upside

    -52.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-01-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 59.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 81.95-52.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 204.75+19.5%
    Market price
    USD 171.41

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn7bn14bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 12.1bnUSD 18.1bnUSD 26.1bnUSD 36.0bnUSD 47.6bnUSD 60.1bnUSD 72.3bnUSD 82.7bnUSD 89.7bnUSD 92.0bn+25.3%
    EBITUSD 245.3mUSD 367.9mUSD 530.0mUSD 732.0mUSD 967.7mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+25.3%
    NOPATUSD 193.8mUSD 290.6mUSD 418.7mUSD 578.3mUSD 764.5mUSD 965.1mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bn+25.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.7bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 15.9bnUSD 18.2bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 20.3bn+25.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -587.3mUSD -944.2mUSD -1.5bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -5.0bnUSD -6.0bnUSD -6.9bnUSD -7.4bn+32.4%
    Capex, % of revenue4.9%5.2%5.6%5.9%6.3%6.6%7.0%7.3%7.7%8.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -543.9mUSD -846.9mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -979.6mUSD -314.8m-5.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 12.1bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 14.1bn+26.3%
    Discount factor0.94230.83660.74290.65960.58560.52000.46170.40990.36400.3232-
    Present valueUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 37.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.889Reported 2.327, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.88%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 154.0bn97.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.8bn3.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC12.63%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 81.95

    49% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 14.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 13.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (19.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.7bn
    Capitalised
    USD 11.1bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    12.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 112.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 36.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 73.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 71.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 204.75

    79% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 442.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 143.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 180.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 178.1bn

    Spread between methods: 86%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    10.63%104.87103.77102.66101.55100.44
    11.63%93.2892.3291.3690.4189.45
    12.63%83.6182.7881.9581.1280.28
    13.63%75.4574.7273.9973.2672.53
    14.63%68.4767.8367.1966.5565.91

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 171.41. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year11.4%27.4%38.2%
    EBIT margin16.3%2.0%23.0%
    Discount rate-12.6%7.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.