MS · NYQ · Financial Services
Morgan Stanley
Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck
Implied value per share
USD 110.27
Market price
USD 185.73
Implied upside
-40.6%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 14.2%
- Payout
- 48%
- Cost of equity
- 9.75%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 101.9bn | USD 108.9bn | USD 115.9bn | USD 122.7bn | USD 129.4bn | USD 135.8bn | USD 141.8bn | USD 147.4bn | USD 152.6bn | USD 157.1bn |
| Return on equity | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% |
| Excess return | USD 4.5bn | USD 4.8bn | USD 5.1bn | USD 5.4bn | USD 5.7bn | USD 6.0bn | USD 6.3bn | USD 6.5bn | USD 6.8bn | USD 7.0bn |
| Present value | USD 4.1bn | USD 4.0bn | USD 3.9bn | USD 3.7bn | USD 3.6bn | USD 3.4bn | USD 3.3bn | USD 3.1bn | USD 2.9bn | USD 2.7bn |
| Book equity | USD 101.9bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 34.8bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 38.8bn |
| Equity value | USD 175.6bn |
| Per share | USD 110.27 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 1.147 | Reported 1.220, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 9.75% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.