DCF Studio

    MSB.AX · ASX · Healthcare

    Mesoblast Limited

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    AUD -20.14

    Market price

    AUD 2.15

    Implied upside

    -1039.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · USD model at 1.4311 · Price 2026-11-03 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedReports in USD, trades in AUD. Modelled in USD, converted at the end.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 3.70% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 42.76%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 42.76% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    AUD -20.14-1039.1%
    Exit multiple
    AUD -47.78-2327.4%
    Market price
    AUD 2.15

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -5349978111-26749890560FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 180.4mUSD 269.3mUSD 386.2mUSD 531.4mUSD 700.1mUSD 881.4mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+25.0%
    EBITUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -5.0bnUSD -6.0bnUSD -6.9bnUSD -7.5bnUSD -7.7bn-25.0%
    NOPATUSD -720.3mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -5.4bn-25.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 77.1mUSD 115.1mUSD 165.1mUSD 227.2mUSD 299.3mUSD 376.8mUSD 452.4mUSD 516.6mUSD 559.7mUSD 573.7m+25.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -77.1mUSD -115.1mUSD -165.1mUSD -227.2mUSD -299.3mUSD -376.8mUSD -452.4mUSD -516.6mUSD -559.7mUSD -573.7m+25.0%
    Capex, % of revenue42.8%42.8%42.8%42.8%42.8%42.8%42.8%42.8%42.8%42.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 16.2mUSD 23.9mUSD 31.5mUSD 39.1mUSD 45.4mUSD 48.8mUSD 47.6mUSD 40.5mUSD 27.2mUSD 8.8m+6.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -704.2mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -5.3bn-25.3%
    Discount factor0.95790.87880.80630.73980.67880.62280.57140.52430.48100.4413-
    Present valueUSD -674.5mUSD -924.0mUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.4bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -18.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.21%Australian Government 10-year (RBA F2), 2026-10-28
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.937Reported 0.906, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.17%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.21%Implied cost of debt of 15.6% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 200bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationUSD 2.8bn95.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 127.3m4.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate30.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.99%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -14.08

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -18.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 79.9m
    Equity value
    USD -18.2bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD -33.39

    58% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD -56.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD -25.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD -43.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 79.9m
    Equity value
    USD -43.2bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.99%-15.73-15.73-15.73-15.73-15.73
    7.99%-14.87-14.87-14.87-14.87-14.87
    8.99%-14.08-14.08-14.08-14.08-14.08
    9.99%-13.33-13.33-13.33-13.33-13.33
    10.99%-12.65-12.65-12.65-12.65-12.65

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 1.50. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    EBIT margin-42.6%-570.5%24.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.