DCF Studio

    MSCI · NYQ · Financial Services

    MSCI Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 342.03

    Market price

    USD 637.21

    Implied upside

    -46.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 27.0x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 342.03-46.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 513.03-19.5%
    Market price
    USD 637.21

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.8bn+5.8%
    EBITUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+5.8%
    NOPATUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bn+5.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 236.5mUSD 257.9mUSD 279.1mUSD 299.8mUSD 319.6mUSD 338.0mUSD 354.8mUSD 369.5mUSD 381.7mUSD 391.3m+5.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -132.3mUSD -151.7mUSD -172.2mUSD -193.6mUSD -215.6mUSD -237.7mUSD -259.8mUSD -281.1mUSD -301.5mUSD -320.3m+10.3%
    Capex, % of revenue3.8%3.9%4.1%4.3%4.5%4.7%4.9%5.1%5.3%5.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -116.9mUSD -95.5mUSD -94.7mUSD -92.3mUSD -88.2mUSD -82.3mUSD -74.7mUSD -65.5mUSD -54.7mUSD -42.6m-10.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bn+6.0%
    Discount factor0.95760.87820.80530.73850.67720.62100.56950.52220.47890.4392-
    Present valueUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 13.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.129Reported 1.192, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.67%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 8.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 46.3bn88.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.3bn12.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate17.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.05%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 342.03

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (7.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -216.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    32.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 41.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 18.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 26.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 513.03

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 71.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 31.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 45.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 39.3bn

    Spread between methods: 40%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.05%465.93493.82528.13571.24626.87
    8.05%380.73397.83418.24442.94473.34
    9.05%318.28329.23342.02357.13375.17
    10.05%270.59277.78286.08295.72306.99
    11.05%233.00237.81243.30249.61256.89

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 637.21. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year11.7%6.4%13.2%
    Discount rate-9.0%6.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.