DCF Studio

    MTD · NYQ · Healthcare

    Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 696.04

    Market price

    USD 1678.19

    Implied upside

    -58.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 28.7x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 696.04-58.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 1031.91-38.5%
    Market price
    USD 1678.19

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.8bn+3.6%
    EBITUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bn+3.6%
    NOPATUSD 994.1mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bn+3.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 131.3mUSD 137.5mUSD 143.6mUSD 149.6mUSD 155.5mUSD 161.1mUSD 166.5mUSD 171.6mUSD 176.4mUSD 180.8m+3.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -118.9mUSD -123.7mUSD -128.3mUSD -132.7mUSD -136.9mUSD -140.9mUSD -144.6mUSD -147.9mUSD -150.9mUSD -153.6m+2.9%
    Capex, % of revenue2.8%2.8%2.8%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.7%2.6%2.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -47.5mUSD -44.7mUSD -44.1mUSD -43.2mUSD -41.9mUSD -40.5mUSD -38.7mUSD -36.6mUSD -34.3mUSD -31.7m-4.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 959.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bn+4.0%
    Discount factor0.95650.87520.80080.73270.67040.61340.56130.51350.46990.4299-
    Present valueUSD 917.3mUSD 884.2mUSD 848.0mUSD 811.1mUSD 773.7mUSD 736.0mUSD 698.3mUSD 660.7mUSD 623.4mUSD 586.6m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.115Reported 1.171, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.61%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 16.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 33.6bn94.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.2bn6.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate17.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.29%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 696.04

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (5.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -79.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    45.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.4bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 1031.91

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 36.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 23.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 21.3bn

    Spread between methods: 39%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.29%913.10964.391026.751104.071202.26
    8.29%761.72794.29832.77878.85934.90
    9.29%649.46671.04696.04725.27759.83
    10.29%562.95577.69594.52613.87636.29
    11.29%494.29504.56516.18529.37544.44

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 1678.19. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.9%3.8%14.1%
    EBIT margin29.1%28.5%65.0%
    Discount rate-9.3%5.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.