DCF Studio

    MU · NMS · Technology

    Micron Technology, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 243.95

    Market price

    USD 833.59

    Implied upside

    -70.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-08-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 37.1% of revenue against depreciation of 27.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 243.95-70.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 556.13-33.3%
    Market price
    USD 833.59

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -15bn17bn50bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 199.8bnUSD 232.1bnUSD 265.7bnUSD 299.5bnUSD 332.6bnUSD 363.7bnUSD 391.4bnUSD 414.6bnUSD 432.0bnUSD 442.8bn+9.2%
    EBITUSD 35.5bnUSD 41.3bnUSD 47.2bnUSD 53.3bnUSD 59.2bnUSD 64.7bnUSD 69.6bnUSD 73.7bnUSD 76.8bnUSD 78.8bn+9.2%
    NOPATUSD 30.3bnUSD 35.2bnUSD 40.2bnUSD 45.4bnUSD 50.4bnUSD 55.1bnUSD 59.3bnUSD 62.8bnUSD 65.5bnUSD 67.1bn+9.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 55.1bnUSD 64.0bnUSD 73.3bnUSD 82.7bnUSD 91.8bnUSD 100.4bnUSD 108.0bnUSD 114.4bnUSD 119.2bnUSD 122.2bn+9.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -74.1bnUSD -84.3bnUSD -94.6bnUSD -104.5bnUSD -113.6bnUSD -121.5bnUSD -128.0bnUSD -132.5bnUSD -134.9bnUSD -135.1bn+6.9%
    Capex, % of revenue37.1%36.3%35.6%34.9%34.1%33.4%32.7%32.0%31.2%30.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -26.4bnUSD -12.8bnUSD -13.3bnUSD -13.4bnUSD -13.1bnUSD -12.3bnUSD -11.0bnUSD -9.2bnUSD -6.9bnUSD -4.3bn-18.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -15.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 21.6bnUSD 28.4bnUSD 35.5bnUSD 42.8bnUSD 50.0bn-
    Discount factor0.94060.83210.73610.65120.57610.50960.45080.39880.35280.3121-
    Present valueUSD -14.1bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.6bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 76.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.937Reported 2.398, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity13.09%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 937.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 943.1bn99.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.2bn0.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate14.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC13.04%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 243.95

    68% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 50.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 67.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (19.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -12.9bn
    Capitalised
    USD 54.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    13.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 527.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 164.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 240.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD -38.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 278.8bn

    Exit at 8.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 556.13

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 1670.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 521.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 597.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD -38.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 635.7bn

    Spread between methods: 78%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    11.04%322.68320.40318.33316.51314.99
    12.04%282.61279.27275.99272.77269.63
    13.04%251.06247.51243.95240.39236.83
    14.04%226.21223.08219.94216.81213.67
    15.04%205.14202.37199.59196.81194.03

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 833.59. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year104.6%12.8%32.3%
    EBIT margin74.6%17.8%47.0%
    Discount rate-13.0%6.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.