DCF Studio

    NCLH · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -37.56

    Market price

    USD 17.94

    Implied upside

    -309.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 28.7% of revenue against depreciation of 12.3%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -37.56-309.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD -25.15-240.2%
    Market price
    USD 17.94

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -1415m-584m247mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 12.0bnUSD 12.5bnUSD 12.9bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.7bnUSD 14.0bn+3.7%
    EBITUSD 257.5mUSD 270.2mUSD 282.7mUSD 295.0mUSD 306.9mUSD 318.3mUSD 329.2mUSD 339.4mUSD 348.9mUSD 357.7m+3.7%
    NOPATUSD 254.2mUSD 266.8mUSD 279.1mUSD 291.2mUSD 303.0mUSD 314.2mUSD 325.0mUSD 335.1mUSD 344.5mUSD 353.1m+3.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+3.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -1.8bn-5.1%
    Capex, % of revenue28.7%27.0%25.2%23.5%21.7%20.0%18.2%16.5%14.7%13.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -7.8mUSD -14.3mUSD -14.1mUSD -13.8mUSD -13.4mUSD -12.8mUSD -12.2mUSD -11.5mUSD -10.7mUSD -9.8m+2.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.0bnUSD -847.0mUSD -658.9mUSD -454.2mUSD -234.1mUSD 118.5kUSD 247.0m-
    Discount factor0.95950.88330.81310.74850.68910.63440.58400.53760.49490.4556-
    Present valueUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -951.8mUSD -761.8mUSD -583.7mUSD -418.0mUSD -265.3mUSD -125.9mUSD 58.6kUSD 112.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -5.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.646Reported 1.964, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.86%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a B rating at 1.6x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 6.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 8.2bn36.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 14.6bn63.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate1.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.63%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -37.56

    -55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 247.0m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 353.1m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -96.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 256.8m
    ROIC (reported)
    9.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 4.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 2.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD -3.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 14.4bn
    Equity value
    USD -17.9bn

    Exit at 8.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD -25.15

    331% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 17.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 2.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 14.4bn
    Equity value
    USD -12.0bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.63%-35.33-35.17-34.96-34.66-34.24
    7.63%-36.61-36.61-36.59-36.54-36.46
    8.63%-37.43-37.50-37.56-37.62-37.67
    9.63%-37.92-38.00-38.08-38.16-38.24
    10.63%-38.21-38.27-38.34-38.41-38.48

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 17.94. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year26.6%3.6%50.0%
    EBIT margin15.9%2.5%20.6%
    Discount rate-8.6%3.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.