DCF Studio

    NDSN · NMS · Industrials

    Nordson Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 152.51

    Market price

    USD 327.58

    Implied upside

    -53.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-10-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 23.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 152.51-53.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 259.57-20.8%
    Market price
    USD 327.58

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m376m751mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bn+3.8%
    EBITUSD 792.7mUSD 833.2mUSD 873.1mUSD 912.1mUSD 949.8mUSD 985.9mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+3.8%
    NOPATUSD 630.3mUSD 662.6mUSD 694.3mUSD 725.3mUSD 755.2mUSD 784.0mUSD 811.3mUSD 836.9mUSD 860.5mUSD 882.0m+3.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 141.9mUSD 149.2mUSD 156.3mUSD 163.3mUSD 170.1mUSD 176.5mUSD 182.7mUSD 188.4mUSD 193.8mUSD 198.6m+3.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -59.4mUSD -80.2mUSD -102.6mUSD -126.6mUSD -152.1mUSD -178.9mUSD -206.8mUSD -235.7mUSD -265.4mUSD -295.7m+19.5%
    Capex, % of revenue1.9%2.5%3.0%3.6%4.2%4.7%5.3%5.8%6.4%6.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -87.0mUSD -51.2mUSD -50.4mUSD -49.2mUSD -47.7mUSD -45.7mUSD -43.4mUSD -40.7mUSD -37.6mUSD -34.2m-9.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 625.8mUSD 680.3mUSD 697.6mUSD 712.7mUSD 725.6mUSD 736.0mUSD 743.8mUSD 748.9mUSD 751.3mUSD 750.8m+2.0%
    Discount factor0.95950.88350.81340.74890.68960.63490.58460.53820.49560.4563-
    Present valueUSD 600.5mUSD 601.0mUSD 567.4mUSD 533.8mUSD 500.3mUSD 467.3mUSD 434.8mUSD 403.1mUSD 372.3mUSD 342.6m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.995Reported 0.992, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.10%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 7.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 18.2bn89.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.1bn10.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.61%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 152.51

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 750.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 966.5m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (21.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -203.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 763.2m
    ROIC (reported)
    11.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 12.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 10.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 8.7bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 259.57

    71% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.8bn

    Spread between methods: 52%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.61%222.05229.59239.39252.38270.11
    7.61%180.29183.42187.48192.78199.76
    8.61%150.30151.20152.51154.33156.82
    9.61%127.72127.45127.35127.45127.82
    10.61%110.11109.20108.36107.58106.90

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 327.58. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.5%4.4%13.1%
    EBIT margin27.1%25.9%52.0%
    Discount rate-8.6%5.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.