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    NEM · NYQ · Basic Materials

    Newmont Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 77.15

    Market price

    USD 109.09

    Implied upside

    -29.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 77.15-29.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 86.20-21.0%
    Market price
    USD 109.09

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 26.4bnUSD 27.7bnUSD 29.1bnUSD 30.4bnUSD 31.7bnUSD 32.9bnUSD 34.0bnUSD 35.1bnUSD 36.1bnUSD 37.0bn+3.8%
    EBITUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.2bn+3.8%
    NOPATUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.3bn+3.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bn+3.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.8bnUSD -5.1bnUSD -5.4bnUSD -5.8bnUSD -6.1bnUSD -6.5bnUSD -6.8bnUSD -7.1bnUSD -7.5bnUSD -7.8bn+5.6%
    Capex, % of revenue18.0%18.3%18.7%19.0%19.3%19.7%20.0%20.3%20.7%21.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -478.2mUSD -176.1mUSD -173.3mUSD -169.1mUSD -163.6mUSD -156.8mUSD -148.6mUSD -139.1mUSD -128.4mUSD -116.4m-14.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.1bn+2.7%
    Discount factor0.96340.89420.83000.77040.71500.66370.61600.57180.53070.4926-
    Present valueUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 32.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.714Reported 0.573, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.91%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 48.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 113.4bn95.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.6bn4.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.74%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 77.15

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 7.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 5.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 101.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 49.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 82.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 85.5bn

    Exit at 8.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 86.20

    65% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 121.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 59.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 92.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 95.5bn

    Spread between methods: 11%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.74%113.83117.17121.85128.59138.78
    6.74%92.3693.1094.2395.9198.40
    7.74%77.8077.4377.1576.9977.01
    8.74%67.4266.6065.7964.9764.16
    9.74%60.3359.6358.9458.2557.55

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 109.09. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year23.9%5.0%9.5%
    EBIT margin48.6%24.9%35.0%
    Discount rate-7.7%6.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.