DCF Studio

    NEM · NYQ · Basic Materials

    Newmont Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 124.69

    Market price

    USD 123.41

    Implied upside

    +1.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 124.69+1.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 183.89+49.0%
    Market price
    USD 123.41

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn11bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 28.1bnUSD 34.8bnUSD 43.1bnUSD 53.4bnUSD 66.2bn+23.9%
    EBITUSD 7.0bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 16.5bn+23.9%
    NOPATUSD 5.5bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 13.0bn+23.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 4.3bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 10.1bn+23.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -5.1bnUSD -6.3bnUSD -7.8bnUSD -9.6bnUSD -11.9bn+23.9%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -285.5mUSD -353.8mUSD -438.4mUSD -543.2mUSD -673.1m+23.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 4.5bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 10.6bn+23.9%
    Discount factor0.95950.88340.81340.74890.6895-
    Present valueUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 7.3bn+14.1%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 28.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.694Reported 0.543, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.81%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 130.0bn95.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.6bn4.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.61%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 124.69

    79% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 10.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 13.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -3.8bn
    Capitalised
    USD 9.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 155.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 107.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 135.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 138.2bn

    Exit at 9.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 183.89

    86% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 250.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 172.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 201.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -2.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 203.7bn

    Spread between methods: 38%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.61%174.11179.27185.55193.44203.69
    7.61%144.77146.81149.16151.91155.20
    8.61%123.73124.21124.69125.17125.66
    9.61%109.66110.06110.47110.87111.28
    10.61%98.3198.6699.0299.3799.72

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 123.41. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year23.9%23.6%-0.3pp
    EBIT margin24.9%24.7%-0.2pp
    Discount rate8.6%8.7%+0.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.