NEXI.MI · MIL · Technology
Nexi S.p.A.
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
EUR 15.63
Market price
EUR 4.15
Implied upside
+276.9%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 6.6bn | EUR 7.0bn | EUR 7.4bn | EUR 7.9bn | EUR 8.3bn | +5.8% |
| EBIT | EUR 353.2m | EUR 373.6m | EUR 395.2m | EUR 418.1m | EUR 442.2m | +5.8% |
| NOPAT | EUR 264.9m | EUR 280.2m | EUR 296.4m | EUR 313.5m | EUR 331.7m | +5.8% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 1.4bn | EUR 1.5bn | EUR 1.6bn | EUR 1.6bn | EUR 1.7bn | +5.8% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -529.9m | EUR -560.6m | EUR -592.9m | EUR -627.2m | EUR -663.4m | +5.8% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR -35.2m | EUR -37.2m | EUR -39.3m | EUR -41.6m | EUR -44.0m | +5.8% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 1.1bn | EUR 1.2bn | EUR 1.2bn | EUR 1.3bn | EUR 1.4bn | +5.8% |
| Discount factor | 0.9668 | 0.9037 | 0.8446 | 0.7895 | 0.7379 | - |
| Present value | EUR 1.1bn | EUR 1.0bn | EUR 1.0bn | EUR 1.0bn | EUR 1.0bn | -1.1% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 5.2bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 1.069 | Reported 1.103, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 11.15% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 5.30% | Interest expense / average total debt |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 4.9bn | 42.0% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 6.7bn | 58.0% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.99% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
75% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 1.4bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 1.5bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.8% of NOPAT)
- EUR -520.6m
- Capitalised
- EUR 934.3m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 7.0%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 21.3bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 15.8bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 20.9bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 856.0m
- Equity value
- EUR 20.1bn
Exit at 3.3x EBITDA
51% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 7.2bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 5.3bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 10.5bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 856.0m
- Equity value
- EUR 9.6bn
Spread between methods: 70%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.99% | 22.09 | 22.18 | 22.27 | 22.36 | 22.45 |
| 5.99% | 18.25 | 18.32 | 18.39 | 18.46 | 18.54 |
| 6.99% | 15.51 | 15.57 | 15.63 | 15.69 | 15.75 |
| 7.99% | 13.46 | 13.51 | 13.56 | 13.61 | 13.66 |
| 8.99% | 11.87 | 11.91 | 11.95 | 12.00 | 12.04 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 4.15. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 5.8% | -22.0% | -27.7pp |
| EBIT margin | 5.3% | -10.9% | -16.2pp |
| Discount rate | 7.0% | 23.4% | +16.4pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.