DCF Studio

    NIBE-B.ST · STO · Industrials

    NIBE Industrier AB (publ)

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    SEK 9.89

    Market price

    SEK 42.98

    Implied upside

    -77.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 6.0% of revenue against depreciation of 4.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    SEK 9.89-77.0%
    Exit multiple
    SEK 32.57-24.2%
    Market price
    SEK 42.98

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (SEK). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todaySEK
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueSEK 41.1bnSEK 41.4bnSEK 41.6bnSEK 41.9bnSEK 42.2bn+0.6%
    EBITSEK 4.2bnSEK 4.3bnSEK 4.3bnSEK 4.3bnSEK 4.3bn+0.6%
    NOPATSEK 3.2bnSEK 3.2bnSEK 3.2bnSEK 3.3bnSEK 3.3bn+0.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationSEK 1.9bnSEK 1.9bnSEK 1.9bnSEK 2.0bnSEK 2.0bn+0.6%
    Less capital expenditureSEK -2.5bnSEK -2.5bnSEK -2.5bnSEK -2.5bnSEK -2.5bn+0.6%
    Less increase in working capitalSEK -7.6mSEK -7.7mSEK -7.7mSEK -7.8mSEK -7.8m+0.6%
    Free cashflow to firmSEK 2.6bnSEK 2.7bnSEK 2.7bnSEK 2.7bnSEK 2.7bn+0.6%
    Discount factor0.95790.87880.80640.73980.6788-
    Present valueSEK 2.5bnSEK 2.3bnSEK 2.2bnSEK 2.0bnSEK 1.8bn-7.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastSEK 10.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.950Reported 0.926, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.38%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.60%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationSEK 86.7bn79.9% of capital
    Total debtSEK 21.8bn20.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate24.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.99%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareSEK 9.89

    70% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    SEK 2.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    SEK 3.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.8% of NOPAT)
    SEK -914.7m
    Capitalised
    SEK 2.4bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 37.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 25.5bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 36.3bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 16.4bn
    Equity value
    SEK 19.9bn

    Exit at 16.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareSEK 32.57

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 104.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 71.2bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 82.0bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 16.4bn
    Equity value
    SEK 65.7bn

    Spread between methods: 107%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (SEK) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.99%15.6015.9816.4216.9617.63
    7.99%12.0612.1412.2212.3012.39
    8.99%9.779.839.899.9510.01
    9.99%7.958.008.058.118.16
    10.99%6.466.516.566.606.65

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 42.98. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year0.6%27.4%+26.8pp
    EBIT margin10.3%28.1%+17.8pp
    Discount rate9.0%4.6%-4.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.